How to tell if Venezuela is heading for democracy

“It feels like a drain has been unblocked,” whispers a construction worker in Caracas, Venezuela’s capital. To see Nicolás Maduro—torture enabler, election thief and destroyer of the economy—flushed away into a New York jail is deeply satisfying for most. Yet any celebrations are muted. The regime is still in power. Delcy Rodríguez, Mr Maduro’s deputy, has taken over with the backing of Donald Trump, who says she is doing his bidding.

Nonetheless, four in five Venezuelans think the political situation will be better within a year. This optimism stems from Ms Rodríguez’s moves to improve the economy, coupled with faith in Mr Trump’s resolve. “Today, I can assure Venezuelans that the transition to democracy will take place,” said María Corina Machado, the opposition leader and Nobel peace-prize winner, on January 28th after meeting with Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state.

Any shift to democracy will take time, but many are eager to understand now if Ms Machado is right. That means assessing the seriousness of the Trump administration and the vulnerability of Ms Rodríguez and her cronies. A democratic Venezuela would pose existential danger to the regime she now leads. The reforms her government enacts will be telling. They will reveal what the Trump administration is demanding, but also what regime hardliners are unable to block. Ms Rodríguez has offered a string of announcements and proposed new laws. So far they point to progress on the economy, but deliberate stalling over democracy.

Since Mr Maduro’s capture in January some $300m has flooded into Venezuela’s banking system, the initial proceeds from Mr Trump’s oil deal whereby the United States is bringing 30m-50m barrels of Venezuelan crude to market. More money is expected. As a result, the gap between the official and parallel exchange rates, which had widened greatly, has shrunk to about 20%, curbing worries about hyperinflation. Ms Rodríguez says the government must “streamline all state procedures” and promises a more pro-market environment.

On January 22nd the National Assembly, which the regime controls, gave initial approval to changes to the hydrocarbons law, which currently favours the state oil company, PDVSA. The reform would appear to give private companies more control over the production and sale of oil. It would also cut some royalties and allow for independent arbitration of disputes. The changes are a priority for Mr Trump and welcome news for foreign firms, though Venezuela’s president retains controlling power over the sector. Next up is Venezuela’s mining law, which will also be reworked to attract foreign investment.

Ms Rodríguez may genuinely want economic reform. To some that is hopeful. Antonio Ecarri Angola, a congressman from the part of the opposition that still talks to the government, argues that economic liberalisation begets democracy. But examples like China and Vietnam challenge this view. The regime may be betting that a stronger economy curbs demand for change and keeps it in power.

Optimists note other positive steps. The regime has freed about 300 political prisoners, more than ever before in such a short period. Among them is Rafael Tudares, the son-in-law of Edmundo González, who actually won the presidential election that Mr Maduro stole in 2024. Ms Rodríguez has promised a “true dialogue” that she says will include “agreeing” and “divergent” political movements. Her brother, who heads the National Assembly, has suggested reforms to encourage political participation, ironic given his long-running repression of the opposition.

Ms Rodríguez has also overhauled her cabinet and the leadership of the army, though the most senior figures remain untouched. Among those sacked is Álex Saab, the minister of industry and Mr Maduro’s former “fixer”, who was previously imprisoned in the United States for money-laundering. Foreign oil-industry executives had complained it was “awkward” to deal with an ex-convict. Fear is ebbing. On January 27th some student leaders confronted Ms Rodríguez in public, demanding that more political prisoners be released. A series of opposition figures have emerged from hiding and called for new elections. After meeting Mr Trump, Ms Machado claimed that the regime is being forced to “dismantle itself”.

But this softening is mostly symbolic. The majority of political prisoners are still behind bars—some 600 according to Foro Penal, a local watchdog. They include many of Ms Machado’s closest allies. Most releases are conditional. This makes it easy for the regime to detain ex-prisoners again and, in effect, gags them. Hardliners such as Diosdado Cabello, the interior minister, and Vladimir Padrino, the defence minister, remain in office. Announcing a dialogue is an old regime ploy to survive crises without conceding real change. Ms Rodríguez appears to be ignoring the constitution, which requires calling elections quickly if the president is absent.

The regime is playing for time, hoping that American pressure fades. “Expect delay, ambiguity, renegotiation of terms,” says Andrés Izarra, a former minister under Mr Maduro who is now in exile. Ms Rodríguez occasionally rails against the United States, seemingly to shore up her base. Yet real friction with Mr Trump will be managed through “bureaucratic obstructionism, not open defiance”, says Mr Izarra.

What would constitute real signs of democratic transition? The first test is whether the regime allows political exiles, including Ms Machado, to return. Equally important is whether they, and the press, may operate freely. Many in the regime are deeply opposed to this. Real reforms to the electoral authority and the Supreme Court, including new officials, are other essential stepping stones. Controlled by loyalists, they enabled the theft of the 2024 election. The powerful often ignore the law. Without independent-minded people to enforce them, rules alone mean little.

Much more American pressure will be required. The Trump administration’s vague gestures to democracy have evolved a bit. Scott Bessent, the treasury secretary, recently said: “When we believe it is time, there will be free and fair elections.” Mr Trump said he would love to get Ms Machado “involved in some way”. Yet for now he clearly wants Ms Rodríguez in charge.

Mr Rubio talks of a three-stage plan: stabilisation, recovery and transition. In testimony to the Senate on January 28th he said this is “beginning to create space for different voices” in Venezuela, that a democratic, stable country—unlike the existing “gangster’s paradise”—is the goal. He praised Ms Rodríguez, and said the United States did not expect to use military force to maintain her compliance.

And he suggested that transition from autocracy takes time, citing Spain and Paraguay as examples; one took seven years, the other almost 20. Mr Rubio and his boss might want a democratic Venezuela. But an extended timeline is just what Ms Rodríguez and the regime are counting on. ■