The Venezuelan regime is rapidly consolidating its grip on power

JUST FOUR days after a daring raid by the United States that seized Venezuela’s dictator, Nicolás Maduro, the regime he led appears to be righting itself rapidly. For a start, it has sprouted a new head. On January 5th Delcy Rodríguez, Mr Maduro’s vice-president, was sworn in as the interim president in front of the National Assembly by the head of that body, who is also her brother. Diosdado Cabello, the powerful interior minister, and Vladimir Padrino, the defence minister, seem to be backing her. Despite rumours that Ms Rodríguez may have helped the Americans in their raid, even Mr Maduro’s son, a congressman, proclaimed: “Delcy, you have my support…the nation is in good hands.” A new attitude towards the United States is just as striking. “We extend an invitation to the US government to work together on a co-operation agenda, aimed at shared development,” said Ms Rodríguez, in a screeching U-turn from her defiant tone just a day earlier.

All that suggests that Donald Trump’s bet on Ms Rodríguez as the best option to avoid infighting and do his bidding is on track. This re-heated regime looks grim for long-suffering Venezuelans. “We have this burning urge to celebrate that Maduro’s gone, but now that’s been put on hold,” said Arturo, a taxi-driver in Caracas, the capital. Yet unity among factions and accord between enemies are much easier to feign in the short run than over time. A potentially violent power struggle could yet test Mr Trump’s resolve to keep the regime in line. The best hope for ordinary Venezuelans is the United States pushing for a transition to democracy. Alas, that hardly seems a priority for Mr Trump’s administration.

Instead it is busy implementing—and selling—its plan to back Ms Rodríguez. Mr Trump described Ms Rodríguez’s relationship with Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, as “very strong”. Communication may soon be easier still. The US State Department confirmed it is making the necessary preparations to reopen its embassy in Caracas, which has been closed since 2019.

There is no sign that the United States’ demands include less repression. Instead the regime is taking the opportunity to crack down. It published a decree directing the authorities to search for and arrest “any person involved in the promotion of or support for the armed attack by the US against the territory of the republic”. On January 5th  it sent armed paramilitaries, known as colectivos, onto the streets of Caracas. These are largely controlled by Mr Cabello. Some were stopping drivers to check their phones. The likely aim is to deter any protests against Ms Rodríguez. Some 14 journalists and media workers were also detained for hours before being released, according to the National Union of Press Workers in Venezuela. Ms Rodríguez may have some economic nous and a pragmatic streak, but she was in the innermost circle of a regime that has regularly tortured, killed and disappeared opponents and their family members.

Servility to the Trump administration may not last. Mr Trump plans to keep the regime hemmed in by tightening an oil cordon and by threatening new military strikes. Yet as midterm elections loom in the United States, constraining Mr Trump’s room for manoeuvre, Ms Rodríguez or regime hardliners will surely look for ways to keep the dollars rolling in. It already appears that more than a dozen oil tankers have sought to break through the American blockade in recent days. And if Mr Rubio starts pushing harder for a democratic transition, expect Ms Rodríguez to gamble on delays and obfuscation.

Maintaining unity within Venezuela will be no mean feat, either. The country’s oil and other resources are a tempting prize for any would-be leader. Should Mr Trump grow frustrated at the slow speed with which crude is flowing, Mr Cabello, Mr Padrino or an ambitious general may try to convince him to change horses. They may even simply gamble on a coup, believing that Mr Trump likes a winner. This sense of fragility was underscored late on January 5th when shots rang out around Miraflores, the presidential palace in Caracas, sparking widespread speculation about a putsch. It may instead have been a jumpy security unit firing at one of its own drones.

Repression or violent power struggle, however, are not the only possibilities. Mr Trump has talked of a democratic transition but has implied that he first wants the oil industry rebuilt, something he says could take 18 months. Such a timetable could easily slip further, giving the regime countless chances to thwart the elected opposition or attempt to simply outlast Mr Trump.

The best hope for María Corina Machado, the leading opposition figure and a Nobel peace laureate, is to try to speed things up. After remaining largely silent for days, perhaps unsure of her next move, Ms Machado appeared on Fox News on January 5th. She thanked Mr Trump for his “courageous actions” and promised she could turn Venezuela into an energy hub, suggesting sweet talk is still her method. She also said she was planning to go back to Venezuela as soon as possible. Ms Machado has proved remarkably resilient and canny. But her biggest challenges lie ahead. ■