Donald Trump’s peace plan would be bad for Ukraine, Europe and America

IT IS HARD to know whether to laugh or panic. The 28-point peace plan that America is hawking around as a basis for ending the war in Ukraine is so poorly put together, so vague, unbalanced and impractical that, in a more normal world, it would never have seen the light of day—and once leaked it would have been quietly dumped.

But these are not ordinary times. It remains entirely possible, perhaps probable, that President Donald Trump will insist on Ukraine accepting the plan or something very like it by Thanksgiving. If President Volodymyr Zelensky refuses, Mr Trump may cut off Ukraine’s access to American intelligence and advanced weapons systems—as he did with devastating effect briefly earlier this year. In Kyiv on November 21st Mr Zelensky warned in a video address to the nation that Ukraine was facing “one of the most difficult moments in our history”. As Voltaire said, Lord, protect me from my friends.

Peer through the vagueness and oddities of this plan—it for instance blocks Ukraine from launching a missile at Moscow or St Petersburg, but nowhere else in Russia, and puts no limits on Russian strikes at all—and a simple deal becomes clear. Russia is rewarded for halting its invasion, by keeping all the territory it has seized and more that it has not; by being welcomed back into the international community, including the G8; and by being given relief from sanctions and generous opportunities to make money. Ukraine gets a ceasefire, its own chance to make money, and an American guarantee that Russia will not attack it again.

Why would that be so bad? For one thing, the details prescribe a future for Ukraine that will be deeply insecure. Mr Zelensky would surrender large cities full of people who will be handed over to Russia as well as the extensive fortifications Ukraine has built over the past three years, crippling its own defences. Ukraine must cap its army at 600,000 troops, whereas Russia faces no limits. No NATO troops can be stationed on Ukrainian territory, which means an end to European plans, until now supposedly supported by America, to station a “reassurance force” there.

Another reason is that the plan richly rewards Mr Putin’s aggression. That is an incentive for him to strike Ukraine again, and it gives Russia’s president money and time to rebuild the armies he needs to realise his long-term goal of threatening and coercing the countries along Russia’s border, from the Arctic to the Black Sea. Mr Putin is a serial breaker of international agreements. He will know that, under Mr Trump at least, America holds its European allies in contempt; they were not consulted in the drawing up of the plan. That is not good for America. Japan and South Korea will take note. Eyeing Taiwan, so will China.

Mr Trump’s people argue that such a pessimistic reading ignores the security guarantees that America is offering Ukraine. Point 10 of the plan says that, should Russia invade, America will provoke a “co-ordinated military response”. If that were credible, that could make even this deal tolerable. But it is not.

Under Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden, America always made clear it will not go to war directly with Russia over Ukraine. Under Mr Trump it is not clear that America would go to war with Russia even over NATO. The plan for Ukraine makes its “guarantee” entirely dependent on the whim of Mr Trump, and the pledge is not even going to be backed by America’s Congress.

Point 10 also stipulates that America will be paid for agreeing to support Ukraine. The history of mercenary warfare suggests that, if an army does not take on a responsibility willingly, it cannot be trusted to turn up.

The proof this plan is a bad deal is that it is really an ultimatum. Just ask yourself, if it offered Ukraine salvation, why would Mr Trump have to force it on Mr Zelensky? If America’s European allies thought it was wise, why would they now be scrambling for a way—any way—to stall it?

The retort from Trumpland is that Ukraine must face reality: it is losing territory at the front and any deal must reflect that. Its cities and power system are being bombarded night after night by Russian drones and missiles. Mr Zelensky is plagued by a corruption scandal, in which tens of millions of dollars were allegedly stolen by officials, and which may go all the way to the top of his administration.

Yet Mr Trump is not acting as if America were Ukraine’s ally. He clearly sees these weaknesses as something to exploit, rather than to repair. Throughout this war, America and Europe have supplied Ukraine with too little, too late. These days America is being paid for supplying it with weapons. Just last month Europe failed to agree on a plan to seize Russian assets in order to supply Ukraine with €140bn ($160bn). (Under Mr Trump’s plan that money would now fall under American control and be used to generate profits for America.) European leaders, meeting today in panic mode, are paying a bitter price for their failure to seize the initiative. That is an indictment of their short-sightedness.

Where does that leave Mr Zelensky? Ukraine should do everything it can to avoid  fighting Mr Trump as well as Mr Putin. So his best course of action is to thank Mr Trump for his wise efforts and engage with the plan. His aim should be to negotiate for improvements in the hope that Mr Putin will object and also attempt to wring more out of the agreement. If the talks get bogged down, Mr Trump will eventually lose interest.

Mr Zelensky should also expect more support from Europe. Its leaders must immediately link up with sympathetic Republicans in Congress to warn Mr Trump against going ahead with the deal in its present form—or, if talks fail, to prevent him lashing out against Ukraine. Despite Europe’s grave fiscal problems, its leaders need to find the money to keep Ukraine in the fight, which may well now mean fighting on without America. The struggle would be desperate and the bill would be high, but far lower than the cost of defending NATO against the aggravated threat from Russia should Ukraine crumble. The current American plan is dangerous not just for Ukraine but for Europe; so its leaders must now move from indignation to action. They have already wasted far too much time on wishful thinking.

Be in no doubt that this is a perilous moment. When a president is not bound by even America’s interests, but is instead motivated by—who knows?—visions of fat profits for American companies, a personal loathing of Mr Zelensky, delusions about Mr Putin, a false sense of what it is to be a statesman, then anything can happen.■