A terrible American-Russian proposal to end the war in Ukraine

A PECULIAR NEW American-Russian plan to end the war in Ukraine has been presented to President Volodymyr Zelensky, just as he is grappling with a corruption scandal that marks his gravest crisis since the invasion. The plan, drafted without Ukraine’s knowledge by Donald Trump’s special representative, Steve Witkoff, and Vladimir Putin’s envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, appears to be little short of a demand for capitulation. Sources familiar with the document say it checks off many of the maximalist demands familiar from earlier Russian proposals, and adds a few more.

The plan, they say, is a 28-point document aimed largely at curbing Ukraine’s military power once the war ends. It envisages a reduction in the number of Ukrainian troops to just 40% of the current level, with no corresponding cut on the Russian side. Ukraine would be required to cede yet more territory, beyond the large parts of its east and south already occupied by Russia. It would be barred from possessing several classes of weapons, including long-range systems capable of reaching Moscow and St Petersburg. No foreign troops would be allowed on Ukrainian soil. Planes used by foreign diplomats would be prohibited from flying to Ukraine, raising questions as to Russia’s intentions for Ukrainian airspace. Ukraine would also be required to designate Russian as a second state language, and the local branch of the Russian Orthodox Church, disbanded over Ukrainian charges that it is a tool of Kremlin propaganda and espionage, would be restored.

The demands are far-fetched. Ukrainians see most of them as non-starters. The country’s forces have been battered on the battlefield lately, but Russia has not achieved a serious operational breakthrough since 2022. Military analysts do not see Ukraine’s position as being so desperate that Mr Zelensky would need to agree to such punishing terms.

It is unclear how widely the proposal was circulated within the Trump administration, or whether it was chiefly a personal initiative by Mr Witkoff. Some sources suggest the latter. The State Department has declined to comment on it. It is also not obvious what the aim of devising such a plan might be beyond embarrassing Mr Zelensky at his moment of weakness. Sources close to the Ukrainian presidential office fear the timing suggests that some in America are using the corruption crisis to push Ukraine into unreasonable concessions.

Ukraine first learned of the details during a meeting in Miami earlier this week between Mr Witkoff and Ukraine’s national-security chief, Rustem Umerov, himself under pressure after being mentioned in the corruption investigation. What Mr Umerov made of the proposal is not known. Mr Zelensky is said to have been frustrated with the results of the talks. On November 19th Mr Witkoff had been meant to fly to Turkey for a meeting with Andriy Yermak, Mr Zelensky’s powerful chief-of-staff, who has faced growing criticism in the wake of the scandal. That meeting was cancelled at the last minute. Some suggest that Mr Witkoff, who is not seen as being well briefed, had been unaware of the storm he was flying into.

On November 20th Mr Zelensky is due to face an angry meeting of his party in one of the most consequential sessions of his presidency. Many of his own MPs and officials are baying for blood, demanding he fire some of his most controversial lieutenants, including Mr Yermak and Mr Umerov, who both deny any involvement in the corruption scandal. A senior official describes it as Mr Zelensky’s “day of reckoning”. It is not yet clear if Mr Witkoff’s odd trial balloon has made the Ukrainian president’s challenge harder—or just a little bit easier.  ■