Japanese politics enters its heavy-metal phase

If Japanese politics had a soundtrack, it would long have been quiet, calm, ambient music. But with the selection of Takaichi Sanae as leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on October 4th, Japan has entered a heavy-metal phase. Ms Takaichi, a one-time drummer in a heavy-metal band, is poised to become prime minister next week. She will be the first woman to lead modern Japan. Brash, nationalistic and polarising, she fits the trend of politics globally.

Yet Ms Takaichi is no anti-establishment firebrand. She is a long-serving, Margaret Thatcher-admiring parliamentarian. She won over the LDP’s lawmakers and rank-and-file members because they think she has the best chance of preserving its slipping grip on power. The party, which has dominated politics for 70 years, faces challenges from upstarts on the hard right, such as Sanseito, which pushes a “Japan First” agenda.

To fend off such forces Ms Takaichi proposes a harder-edged version of the politics of her mentor, Abe Shinzo, a prime minister who was murdered in 2022, after he had retired. The question is whether she will be more like Abe in his short, unsuccessful first term, when he was too ideological, or more like Abe in his record-long second term, when he was a deft, pragmatic political operator.

Ms Takaichi’s ascent brings big risks. Her economic policy is, in essence, Abenomics, with its three arrows of fiscal expansionism, monetary accommodation and structural reform. Yet Abenomics was designed for a country struggling with deflation; it now faces inflation persistently above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Ms Takaichi’s proposals would create more inflationary pressure, further strain the budget and undermine the yen. That might please equity investors, who are happy to see fiscal stimulus and a weaker yen. But it will rattle bond markets and, without structural reform—to the labour market, for example—it will not boost Japan’s potential growth rate.

On the international stage, Ms Takaichi shares Abe’s revisionist views on wartime history. That appeals to Japan’s nationalist right, but if she is not careful she could upend the recent rapprochement with South Korea and sour relations with China. With America she will resent the coercive $550bn tariff and investment deal that her predecessor struck with President Donald Trump, but she cannot afford to provoke the ire of Japan’s security provider by obstructing it.

At home Ms Takaichi is a divisive culture warrior. She opposes allowing married couples to keep separate surnames—a bellwether for feminists. She has pandered to growing fears of foreigners. That might bring some conservative voters back to the LDP fold in the short run, but in the long term stoking populism is risky. It could end, like many a heavy-metal concert, in flames.

Yet that is not inevitable. In many respects Ms Takaichi stands for a refreshing change. Unlike the hereditary politicians who dominate politics, she is self-made. She is a keen student of policy. Her plain-speaking style endears her to voters. Though not a feminist, she is breaking an important glass ceiling—the last woman to rule Japan lived more than a thousand years ago.

And structural forces should constrain the new prime minister. China’s growing assertiveness and North Korea’s new alliance with Russia mean Japan does not have the luxury of squabbling with South Korea over the past. The LDP leads a minority government and will need to broaden the coalition or work with the opposition to make policy. To have a lasting effect on this lofty stage, Ms Takaichi will need to learn how to blend in with the band. ■