Meet Japan’s “Fireball”, Takaichi Sanae, its polarising new leader

AS A YOUNG woman, Takaichi Sanae played drums in a heavy-metal band. When she began working in politics, she kept drumsticks in her bag, taking breaks to play to let off steam. As she rose in Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), she turned to “Burn”, by Deep Purple, a British rock band, to relieve stress. “The town’s on fire, the woman’s flames are reaching higher,” goes one verse.

Ms Takaichi, herself a flame-throwing conservative, has reached the top. On October 4th the LDP selected her as its leader. She is poised to become Japan’s prime minister, the first woman to hold the position. Her rise signals an end to the staidness long characteristic of Japanese politics. “This is the end of a long era, Japan is entering a different kind of politics,” says Gerald Curtis of Columbia University.

Call it Japan’s heavy-metal era. Ms Takaichi offers a blend of muscular patriotism and culture-warrior traditionalism. Her polarising, plain-speaking style fits the global zeitgeist, energising her conservative fans and dismaying her more liberal critics. Yet Ms Takaichi, a fan of Margaret Thatcher, differs from other right-wing insurgents. “[Donald] Trump and other conservative populists in Europe are status quo changers,” says Miyake Kunihiko, a former diplomat. “Takaichi is not—she’s a real conservative, a status quo maintainer.”

The LDP, which has ruled with only two brief interruptions since its founding 70 years ago, chose Ms Takaichi to fend off the true disrupters: upstart parties that have made recent inroads with xenophobic rhetoric and populistic spending pledges. Ishiba Shigeru, the outgoing prime minister, stepped down after less than a year in office, after elections that left the LDP and its coalition partner ruling with a minority in both chambers for the first time in its history. Ms Takaichi launched her leadership bid with a diatribe against misbehaving foreigners that shocked many lawmakers within her own party, but won over the LDP rank-and-file. Their support, as well as that of key party elders, helped her win a run-off against Koizumi Shinjiro, the charismatic son of a former prime minister.

In contrast to Mr Koizumi and many other LDP bigwigs, Ms Takaichi is no political blue-blood. The motorcycle-riding daughter of a police officer and a salaryman, she entered politics after a spell in television news. She worked briefly in Washington for Patricia Schroeder, a feminist congresswoman from the Democratic Party. In parliament in Japan, she found common cause with Abe Shinzo, the late prime minister, on the LDP’s right wing. She developed a reputation as studious, serving in several ministerial posts. She is a “policy wonk”, says a former ambassador to Japan.

In terms of her vision for Japan, she is “an heir to Abe”, says Taniguchi Tomohiko, a former adviser to Abe. That begins with a hawkish belief in the need to strengthen Japan’s defences by investing lots more in security and, ultimately, revising its pacifist constitution. While supporting Japan’s alliance with America, Ms Takaichi has been open about the implications of its growing isolationism. “We absolutely cannot have the mindset of depending on America for everything,” she told Sakurai Yoshiko, a journalist, in “The Lies of the Doves”, a recent book. During the campaign, she was the only candidate to suggest Japan try to renegotiate the terms of a coercive $550bn tariff and investment deal that her predecessor struck with Mr Trump. Though she walked such talk back, Mr Trump’s planned visit to Japan later this month presents an early test.

Ms Takaichi also shares Abe’s controversial views on Japan’s history. She has been a regular visitor to the Yasukuni Shrine, home to the souls of Japan’s war dead, including its imperial leaders. She is a fan of “Till We Meet Again on the Lily Hill”, a recent movie about a girl who travels back in time and falls for a kamikaze pilot. She sees Japan’s aggression as defence against Western colonialism.

Such ideas horrify those who suffered under Japanese colonialism. “She has not been repentant about the past,” says Shin Kak-soo, a former South Korean ambassador to Japan. “That makes us wary.” If she continues to openly express her views as prime minister, it will endanger Japan’s recent rapprochement with South Korea and cause friction with China. She may, however, feel constrained from doing so: faced with neighbours like China, Russia and North Korea, it makes strategic sense for Japan to co-operate with South Korea.

Ms Takaichi’s economic policy also owes much to her mentor’s Abenomics, with its “three arrows” of fiscal expansionism, monetary easing and structural reform. She forcefully embraces the first two arrows. But Ms Takaichi’s “third arrow” focuses less on the structural changes that made Abe a darling of global financial markets, such as corporate-governance reform. Instead, she calls for “crisis management and growth investments”, which amounts to new-age industrial policy. To this quiver, she adds a fourth arrow, meant to target voter frustrations: tax cuts.

The logic is less clear than when Abenomics began in 2012. “Abe fought deflation, but Takaichi, whether she likes it or not, has to fight inflation,” notes Jesper Koll, a Tokyo-based economist. Japan’s consumer price index has been above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for three years. Ms Takaichi’s victory has already led the yen to slide. Along with more stimulus, that will only add inflationary pressures.

Her vision for Japanese society is also a throwback. She opposes allowing married couples to keep separate surnames, a bellwether issue for gender equality in Japan (polls show a majority of the public supports such a change). Her harsh rhetoric about foreign workers and tourists may be intended to win back voters who have recently abandoned the LDP, but risks further inflaming debates over immigration.

She will face big obstacles to making her vision a reality. Unlike Abe, who enjoyed large majorities in parliament and a strong grip on the LDP, Ms Takaichi leads a shaky minority government and has a weaker hold on her party. Komeito, the LDP’s more dovish long-time coalition partner, is skittish. Her early appointments draw heavily on a close circle of allies, exacerbating already deep rifts with the more moderate wing of the LDP.

If she pursues her ideological goals too stubbornly, she risks ending up like Abe in his short-lived first term. In order to last, she will need to demonstrate the pragmatism and flexibility he displayed in his second term. “I hope she draws upon Mr Abe’s shrewd, realist side,” says Ohshita Eiji, the author of a recent biography of her. In any case, Ms Takaichi will need to keep her drumsticks and headphones close at hand—lots of stress surely lies ahead. ■