Vladimir Putin unleashes a summer offensive against Ukraine

AFTER WEEKS of nebulous ceasefire talks at the urging of a semi-engaged President Donald Trump, the war between Russia and Ukraine is intensifying again in savage style and with fast-rising stakes. In the past two weeks there have been record-breaking Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and spectacular Ukrainian drone raids on Russia’s strategic-bomber force, deep inside its borders. But all this is merely a prelude to the main event: a large-scale summer offensive by Russia that aims to break Ukrainian morale and deliver President Vladimir Putin a victory at almost any cost.

Many Ukrainian cities and soldiers are bracing for a final reckoning. Kostiantynivka has been on the edge of war since 2014. Now the writing is on the wall for the eastern town, which Russia has identified as the logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in the Donbas region, and a gateway to the last strongholds there. Up to 25 guided bombs rain down every day. The remaining 8,500 civilians mostly leave the city each day by a 3pm curfew. Dmitry Kirdayapkin, the police chief, knows the Russian drill well by now: kill, demolish, repeat. He saw it in 2014 as an officer in Horlivka, a town that saw fighting while Russia still denied involvement in the war it had launched, and then during the siege of Mariupol in 2022. Today his officers and paramedics in Kostiantynivka work from basements and race along drone-stalked streets in caged vans that resemble massive barbecues.

Ukrainian intelligence believes that Kostiantynivka and neighbouring Pokrovsk will be the focus of Russia’s summer campaign. There are concerns about the north-eastern province of Sumy too. Russia has massed 50,000 troops there, and is advancing slowly towards the provincial capital in a mirror of Ukraine’s own cross-border operation last year. Border towns and villages have been evacuated, with locals reporting swarms of cheap drones that often detonate mid-air. Military sources say they still expect that, once Russia establishes a so-called buffer zone, it will shift its focus to the Donbas and Zaporizhia fronts to the south, continuing the warfare of attrition that has turned the region into a pockmarked wasteland.

The front lines have not shifted in Russia’s favour in any strategically significant way for three years. But Ukrainian sources claim that captured Russian officers tell them the summer campaign is being presented as “one last push”, to break Ukraine’s morale. Mykhailo Kmetiuk, the commander of Typhoon, an elite unmanned-systems unit operating near Pokrovsk, says the Russians continue to plan such operations only because commanders do not spare the lives of their soldiers. Eight out of any ten of the new recruits are eventually killed on the battlefield, he claims, yet there is no realistic end to these waves of Russians. Russia is consistently recruiting 10,000-15,000 more men per month than Ukraine, and does it by offering big sign-on bonuses rather than relying on the conscription that is proving so divisive in Ukraine.

Some Ukrainians are sceptical that Russia can ever break through. The nature of Russia’s fighting—in small dismounted groups to mitigate the risk from drones—means that its progress is never quick, and its losses are high. The invader has still not been able to demonstrate that it can break through defences and then exploit the gap by making rapid or large-scale advances. “Russia’s last big offensive ended in May 2022 [after the fall of Mariupol],” says Roman Kostenko, a special-forces officer, an MP and the secretary of parliament’s defence and security committee. “They haven’t been able to take Kostiantynivka in over three years. How can you even begin talking about their strategy?”

But other soldiers are warier. A key part of Ukraine’s resilience has been its early edge in drone warfare, but that advantage is now eroding. Evhen, an officer in the 93rd brigade, says Russia has pulled ahead even in what he calls the “front-line drone marathon”. A new Russian unit called Rubikon is causing particular trouble around the Kostiantynivka-Pokrovsk sections, chopping up Ukrainian supply lines as far as 40km to the rear. First seen near Kursk in 2024, Rubikon reports directly to Russia’s ministry of defence and is thought to be well-resourced and tightly organised.

“The problem with the Russians is that they are able to absorb losses,” says Mr Kirdyapkin. “Our losses may be a lot less, but we feel them much more.” ■