Peace negotiations give freezing Kyiv a hint of hope

The electricians of Kyiv’s Troyeshina district see the worst of it. For over a week the working-class suburb has been without central heating, with 300,000 people exposed to temperatures as low as -20°C. Residents’ nerves are fraying—as is the wiring, strained by surges from improvised stoves. Electricians scuttle between the brutalist housing blocks, patching burnt-out connections. At least two have died on the job. Nina Svyrydovych, a utility manager, says they are often greeted as gods: “People hope we will deliver light.” At other times they become lightning-rods for public anger. On January 28th dozens of residents blocked a road to stop workers leaving a job, until police intervened.

The collapse is the effect of Russia’s bombing of Ukraine’s energy network. Reserves and balancing capacities are disappearing. On January 29th Donald Trump brokered a brief energy ceasefire for Kyiv. But on February 3rd a record barrage of Russian missiles targeted Ukraine’s infrastructure. Kharkiv, a city of 1.3m, was forced to declare a state of emergency.

Troyeshina’s latest ordeal began on January 24th, when Russia knocked out its thermal power plant, Kyiv’s biggest. To stop pipes from freezing and bursting, municipal engineers drained the system. In early February part of the plant began working again, but with temperatures hitting -25°C engineers were still racing to avoid disaster. “Catastrophe comes in stages,” says Maksym Bakhmatov, Troyeshina’s chief administrator. “First water, then heating, then electricity, and finally sewage.” Residents of one Kyiv suburb already complain of fecal matter in bathtubs.

It is hard to see what Russia’s bombardment of civilian infrastructure aims to do, apart from inflicting misery. It may be intended to influence ceasefire talks. American, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators met in Abu Dhabi on February 1st and then again on February 4th and 5th. A shake-up in Ukraine’s negotiating team, now led by Kyrylo Budanov, the pragmatic former military intelligence chief, has brought sharper focus to the discussions. A big prisoner exchange is expected soon.

Whether the talks go further depends on Vladimir Putin. Sources close to the Ukrainian team say they are waiting for feedback on whether he is open to compromise or intends to double down on his war. The unresolved issues have been the same for months: whether Russia can accept security guarantees agreed between Ukraine and America, and whether Ukraine would have to retreat from heavily fortified territory it still holds. Mr Putin still demands a retreat. Ukraine says a ceasefire should maintain the current line of demarcation.

A compromise under discussion would create a demilitarised zone, possibly overseen by Mr Trump’s “Board of Peace”. Such a deal would have to steer between “positions that are indigestible to both societies”, says a Ukrainian source close to the talks. “We can’t resolve it without agreeing on a security system for the region. The Russians cannot simply say: trust us.” For his part, Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, warned that Russia’s renewed attacks would prompt a “correction” in Ukraine’s approach to the negotiations.

No breakthrough is likely before March, when Russia’s winter offensive will have ended and its economic problems could start to bite. For now, Ukraine appears to be pursuing a two-track strategy. On the one hand it is showing commitment to Plan A, the American-led negotiation. If these succeed, Ukraine would get a chance of peace and EU membership; Russia would get sanctions relief and new American business deals. In parallel, Mr Zelensky is also preparing Plan B, fighting on with a strengthened army. At a presentation in Kyiv on January 26th Mykhailo Fyodorov, his newly installed minister of defence, showed off a futuristic vision of digitalised warfare using drone technologies and gamer logic. Few generals present believed the war would end soon.

In Troyeshina everyone is expecting Plan B. The electricians under Ms Svyrydovych’s command say residents are not panicking. “Everyone knows we need to survive February and half of March,” she says. “But then we will be heroes.” Mr Bakhmatov is just as defiant. “Putin is mistaken if he thinks Ukrainians will give up because their toilets don’t work. We will crap in ditches if we have to—singing ‘Putin is a dickhead’. Ukrainians will never give in.” ■