The Kremlin’s blitz to make Ukraine “go dark”

Vladimir Putin’s ground war is not going well. This year he has lost hundreds of thousands of soldiers in exchange for less than 1% of Ukrainian territory. So instead of conquering Ukraine, he now wants to destroy it, with air attacks on the power grid and central heating and gas infrastructure as winter nears. The aim is to make swathes of the country’s east uninhabitable, undermining industry and encouraging mass emigration.

Days before Donald Trump met Volodymyr Zelensky on October 17th, missiles and drones cut off the Ukrainian capital’s water supply. For the first time, the Kyiv metro went dark.  Attacks on frontline areas like Sumy and Chernihiv have left parts of those regions without power for days. Ukraine has dramatically improved its missile interception and electronic warfare, and is scaling up new interceptor drone technology. But Russian capabilities are evolving faster. In previous years the Kremlin used expensive missiles in scattergun attacks. Now it focuses on specific regions, attacking in waves using the latest inexpensive Shahed drones.

The most advanced Shahed-like drones now travel in excess of 300kph, and use artificial intelligence to overcome Ukrainian jamming. They approach from near-vertical positions, above the range of machineguns. A year ago 150 drones in a night was considered a serious attack. Now Ukraine frequently faces 600 or 700. Protecting every target is an impossible task.

Some 60% of Ukraine’s power comes from nuclear reactors, with most of the rest from hydropower and thermal (coal or gas) plants. In three weeks, Russia has taken offline several thermal power plants and perhaps half of Ukraine’s gas production, forcing it to spend $1.9bn on imported gas. Beyond the capital, Russia is focusing on the border regions of Sumy, Chernihiv and Kharkiv. The aim appears to be to detach the industrial east from energy production in the west of the country. Ukraine’s transmission grid rests on about 90 crucial substations that convert the 750-kilovolt current from power stations into lower voltages for regional networks. Russia is striking them one by one. Critical nodes were supposed to be protected with reinforced concrete and wire mesh, but many were not.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine’s government has been in a state of emergency. When the pressing energy crises in 2022 and 2023 passed, attention turned elsewhere. The lack of systemic thinking has been compounded by government rivalries and by overcentralisation in the presidential office. In 2024 two officials responsible for building defences—Oleksandr Kubrakov, then deputy prime minister, and Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, then head of Ukrenergo, the transmission-system operator—were forced out. After Mr Trump returned to the White House in January, aid dried up. “The protective systems weren’t built simultaneously across all sites,” says one contractor.

The mood in the sector is downbeat, but not defeatist. Ukraine has dealt with difficult challenges before. It has some spare transformers for repairs. An achievable aim might be to slow Russian destruction enough for replacement to keep up. The country is creating hundreds of new military units combining air defence with drones to protect the most essential facilities. But this winter will test resilience like no other. Prolonged blackouts across many regions are a real prospect. Some may experience blackouts of both electric power and gas. Mr Putin, scenting blood, is unlikely to stop. In previous years his attacks have only stiffened Ukrainian resolve. This time round they may be more effective. ■