Will Bangladesh’s revolution bear fruit?

When Muhammad Yunus took charge of Bangladesh’s caretaker government in late 2024, he promised a national rebirth. The microcredit pioneer and Nobel laureate was appointed as the country’s interim leader after student-led protests toppled Sheikh Hasina, the prime minister, and her party, the Awami League. For 15 years she had run the country of 170m with increasing despotism, gutting its institutions and depleting its reserves. Her downfall was celebrated, in Bangladesh and beyond, as a triumph for democracy.  The coming year will be pivotal in shaping the country’s future.

The new dawn was soon clouded by uncertainty. Bangladesh spent much of 2025 in political limbo. After months of delay, the interim government finally revealed a package of democratic reforms in October, but doubts linger over its implementation and legality.

More troubling is the risk of another cycle of political retribution. Politicians and the public have made it very clear that they want some accountability for the Awami League’s excesses. But ngos have accused the interim government of unfairly targeting Awami supporters, many of whom have been locked up. It has also banned the party from political activity on national-security grounds, in a move that recalls the vengeful style of politics that has long plagued the country.

The good news is that in early 2026 Bangladesh may finally get an election. That would be a victory in its own right. The previous one, in 2024, was deemed a sham by most international observers, featuring almost no opposition candidates and voter turnout of around 40%.

Bangladeshis hope the vote will herald a period of stability. But there are fears a new government could bring back old problems. Leading in the polls is the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, which faces allegations of corruption. Also prominent is the Jamaat-e-Islami, an Islamist group accused of indulging extremists.

Whoever wins will inherit formidable economic challenges. The once-booming garment sector has been hit hard by American tariffs. Unemployment is a big problem, especially among the young.

On foreign policy, too, tough decisions loom. Under Mr Yunus, Bangladesh has lurched towards China, signing deals on trade, infrastructure and defence. This has angered India, traditionally Bangladesh’s strongest ally. Closer to home, the new leaders will need to tackle a humanitarian crisis as Rohingya refugees from Myanmar’s civil war continue to flow into the south. Bangladesh’s capacity and patience to host them are wearing thin, especially after America’s cuts to aid.

After the country won independence in 1971, the joy from the birth of a nation was snuffed out within four years by a military coup. Bangladeshis are hoping that the optimism and promise of this second birth will last much longer than that. ■