The world has hit “peak wine”

Ernest Hemingway, a famously heavy drinker, is supposed to have said his only regret in life was that he did not drink more wine. To the shock of the wine industry, it appears fewer and fewer people now feel the same way. Demand is slumping worldwide. “We face an existential threat” as to whether society will “continue drinking alcohol, including wine”, says one salesman for a large wine group.

In 2026 the world will wake up to the fact that humanity has hit peak wine consumption. The volume of wine sold in major markets in 2024 was around 9% lower than at its height in 2014, according to iwsr, an alcohol-data firm. Both the global volume and value of wine sold will fall in 2026. Wine sales have always fallen in lean times, such as during the global financial crisis of 2007-09. But today, for the first time in modern history, wine is experiencing a secular decline that has nothing to do with broader financial conditions. People are just drinking less of it.

Why is the glass half-empty? Demand for alcohol of all kinds has slipped, but wine has been particularly hard hit—particularly the mass-market sort that accounts for the bulk of sales. It is what is known as a “high-frequency beverage”, but people are indulging less often, as they become more health-conscious and opt for lower-alcohol alternatives. Some 53% of Americans say drinking, even in moderation, is bad for their health, up from 22% two decades ago, according to a survey by Gallup. Wine is especially vulnerable to substitution by new entrants like “ready to drink” seltzers and cocktails in cans, which can have lower alcohol levels, says Richard Halstead of iwsr.

The trend is being driven by demography and culture. In big markets, including America and western Europe, population growth has slowed or gone into reverse, while fast-growing Muslim countries are not producing oenophiles. Baby boomers, who have long been enthusiastic wine-drinkers, are heading to what Rob McMillan, a wine analyst at Silicon Valley Bank, calls the “big tasting room in the sky”. Younger consumers, especially Gen Z, are not devoted wine-drinkers. In Australia, for example, monthly wine consumption among 18-to-24-year-olds fell by half between 2010 and 2023.

Wine’s place in culture has changed, too. People of all ages are forsaking drinking altogether, or micro-dosing magic mushrooms instead—call it “California sober”. When people dine out, they may choose cocktails over wine. (Twenty years ago wine was nearly twice as popular as spirits among American drinkers; now slightly more prefer spirits.) And wine veterans worry as more people take glp-1 drugs to control their weight, because slimming jabs make people drink less as well as eat less.

Wine-drinking surged in the 1990s partly as a result of research suggesting it was good for your heart. But now public-health officials warn people off alcohol entirely. America’s top doctor wants cancer warnings on bottles, and the World Health Organisation says “There is no safe level of alcohol consumption.” Vintners worry that wine could soon be stigmatised like tobacco, and governments will treat it as such. “If they start taxing wine like tobacco…people will be able to afford it less and less,” says Stéphane Dalyac, the boss of Laurent-Perrier, a champagne firm.

There are a few things to look out for in the year ahead. One is what happens to demand (and pricing) for Bordeaux in particular. The region is the largest producer of fine wine in the world and a barometer for the industry. Another is the fate of vineyards, which are already being torn out to make room for other crops. Look for more consolidation in the wine sector, too, as some shrinking wine businesses trade hands.

It is not all sour grapes, however. Expect premium wines to fare better, as people drink fewer but higher-quality bottles. William Kelley, editor-in-chief of theWine Advocate, a magazine, compares the wine sector to watches. Technology may have made ordinary wristwatches obsolete, but people still aspire to own and wear luxury timepieces. Jayson Woodridge, who runs Hundred Acre, a cult winery in Napa Valley, concedes that it is “peak wine for the mass-produced ones”. But as trillions of dollars of wealth are transferred from baby-boomers to Gen X and millennials, he predicts that the recipients will spend money on fine wines, alongside other luxuries.

Even those not expecting a windfall have something to celebrate. A slump in demand means prices have fallen. Mr McMillan calls it a “golden era for wine consumers in search of value”. Those still drinking wine will surely raise a glass to that. ■