A crushing blow for the Justin Trudeau show

POLITICALLY SPEAKING, the resignation of a finance minister may be tolerable. When she is also the deputy prime minister, her departure cuts more deeply. And when the quitter was once your most trusted ally, and resigns suddenly, just before she is due to deliver a vital economic update, it may well be a sign that your political spark has finally been snuffed out.

On December 16th this fate befell Justin Trudeau, Canada’s prime minister, when Chrystia Freeland left his cabinet. In a scornful note she accused Mr Trudeau of resorting to “costly political gimmicks” to shore up his popularity through tax breaks and handouts. Ms Freeland’s resignation tosses Mr Trudeau’s government into disarray just as Canada faces a possible economic battering from the tariffs proposed by Donald Trump, president-elect of the United States. Ms Freeland had dealt with Mr Trump before, steering the negotiations that led to the renewal of a North American trade pact between Canada, Mexico and the United States in 2018.

On the morning she resigned, Ms Freeland had been due to brief the House of Commons on Canada’s latest economic prognosis. Speculation had already been swirling that Mr Trudeau was about to give her job to Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of England and of the Bank of Canada before that. Mr Carney guided both central banks during crises; his experience of right-wing populism during Brexit would have helped handle Mr Trump.

The prime minister’s efforts to woo Mr Carney into Ms Freeland’s post were not kept private (Mr Carney had resisted quieter pleas by Mr Trudeau in 2019 and 2021). Mr Trudeau also compromised his deputy by overruling her to announce a temporary reduction of Canada’s value-added tax, and to send C$250 ($175) to the 18m Canadians who earned less than C$150,000 in 2023. Her credibility was damaged further when it was announced that Canada’s budget deficit for 2024 had widened far beyond Ms Freeland’s avowed limit of C$40bn, to C$62bn, some 2% of GDP. Mr Trudeau has had two finance ministers during his nine years in power. Both were driven out by a torrent of leaks from his office which undermined their authority.

The offence to Ms Freeland seems to have been for nought. Mr Trudeau’s next finance minister will not be Mr Carney (who maintains utter public silence) but Dominic LeBlanc, who has been the minister for public safety. He is a childhood friend of Mr Trudeau who often shields him from political heat, and who recently accompanied him to Mar-a-Lago to meet Mr Trump.

Now he must shield him again, since Mr Trudeau faces challenges from his cabinet and his caucus. The number of Liberal MPs calling publicly for him to step down is growing. Fewer than a quarter of Canadians think Mr Trudeau deserves re-election, according to Ipsos, a pollster. In Mr Trump he will face a president who feasts on weakness and seems intent on bullying him and Canada into trade concessions. Canada’s federal elections are scheduled for October 2025. The country may be best served by a prime minister with a fresh mandate, to face mounting challenges at home and across its southern border. ■