The next stage of the Trump peace plan for Gaza is stalling

A series of Israeli air strikes that began on October 28th and killed over a hundred people was a stark reminder that the ceasefire in Gaza, less than three weeks old, remains fragile. Israel went on the attack following a clash near Rafah, in which one of its soldiers was killed. Israel blames Hamas, the Islamist movement which is now back in control of half the strip, for breaking the ceasefire first. Hamas denies this, claiming they were not responsible and that they are sticking to the truce.

The next morning Israel announced the ceasefire was back on, though it stressed that Hamas is still breaching the agreement by not returning 13 bodies of Israeli hostages. The shaky peace is holding, once again, largely because of American pressure. America has established a “Civil-Military Co-ordination Centre” in Israel under a four-star admiral to ensure Israel adheres to the agreement. To reinforce the message, a string of senior American officials, including the vice-president and secretary of state, have paid flying visits.

For now, the Israel Defence Forces (idf) and Hamas are in their respective parts of the strip. Nearly all of Gaza’s 2m civilians have been corralled into less than half the territory, where Hamas has re- established its rule through public executions and beatings. In the other half, which is almost totally depopulated bar a few hundred civilians, most of them members of clans co-operating with Israel, the idf has built a chain of over 20 outposts, guarding a buffer zone along Gaza’s borders. When your correspondent visited one of these outposts, the soldiers seemed to be preparing for a lengthy stay.

Under the 20-point plan presented on September 29th by Donald Trump, this Israeli line is meant to be temporary. Once a Palestinian technocratic government has been set up to oversee civilian matters and an International Stabilisation Force (isf) is deployed and begins disarming Hamas, Israel is to withdraw to a thinner buffer zone.

But this stage is proving tricky. Gaza’s neighbours, Israel and Egypt, are wrangling over the list of names to serve as “independent” technocrats. No country has yet formally pledged troops to the isf. For now, Hamas shows no sign of disarming.

While an agreement over the technocrats is expected soon, the future of the isf is far less certain. Turkey is said to be eager to send troops. Israel has, however, vetoed its participation, pointing to the virulently anti-Israel positions of Turkey’s government and its support for Hamas, whose leaders were often hosted in Ankara.

Israel hopes that Indonesia and Azerbaijan, both Muslim-majority countries but opponents of Hamas’s brand of political Islam, will send troops. Azerbaijan has long had a strategic alliance with Israel. It supplies most of Israel’s oil and buys Israeli weapons systems, which it has used to devastating effect in its wars with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Indonesia does not have formal diplomatic relations with Israel but its president, Prabowo Subianto, has been in contact with Israelis for years. In a speech last month at the United Nations he said that while a Palestinian state is necessary for peace, “we must also recognise, we must also respect, and we must also guarantee the safety and security of Israel.”

More important, Azerbaijan and Indonesia, situated in tense neighbourhoods, want to curry favour with Mr Trump. Their governments are talking to the Americans and the Israelis about sending troops for the isf, but even if they do, security officials in Israel are sceptical that they would take Hamas on directly if it refused to give up its arms. For all their ties to Jerusalem, the governments in Baku and Jakarta are mindful of public opinion at home and wary of seeming to side with Israel in Gaza.

“Stranger things have happened in the Middle East, but at present it looks like the best we can hope for from the isf is that they will efficiently monitor the ceasefire,” says an Israeli general. “They won’t be the ones disarming Hamas. That will be up to internal Palestinian pressures.”

The Israeli security establishment reckons Hamas will give up some of its weapons only in return for a wider reconstruction programme in Gaza, in a future deal. For the moment there is relief in Gaza as the ceasefire more or less holds and as some aid resumes, but the strip is still a wasteland. The Israelis hope that as winter sets in and Gazans start asking why reconstruction has not begun, a new Palestinian security force, backed by the isf, can oversee Hamas’s disarmament as part of an international effort to start rehabilitating Gaza. “If that doesn’t happen,” says the Israeli general, “We will have to go back in again and do it ourselves.” ■