The new players who could run Gaza

Such is the desolation there seems little left to fight over. “Worse than Hiroshima, worse than Dresden,” says a Palestinian in Gaza. And yet no sooner had a ceasefire been declared than the battle for control of post-war Gaza began. It has started on the ground, where Gaza’s clans are fighting turf wars with Hamas, killing scores in a day. But far beyond Gaza’s borders a host of politicians, contractors and foreign consultants are jostling for influence, too. They are eyeing up the $70bn that the un says is needed to rebuild the devastated strip, and seeking the regional and Western backing required to run it.

For Palestinians in Gaza all this has echoes of Israel’s withdrawal in 2005. Their leaders promised to turn the strip into Singapore. Instead, it swiftly descended into what Palestinians call falatan amni, or security chaos. Rival factions and clans looted, kidnapped and shot at each other. Hamas seized control in the end, tossing their rivals from rooftops. Two decades of mostly uncontested rule followed.

Despite ostensibly agreeing to cede control, Hamas is, again, now the strongest contender. With fewer high-rises in Gaza today, its preferred deterrence is summarily executing rivals in public. The largest clan can muster 200 fighters; Hamas claims to have sent 7,000 onto the streets since the ceasefire. The Mujayda clan killed 11 Hamas fighters on the eve of the ceasefire, but abandoned by Israel, it gave up its weapons to the Islamist militants on October 14th. Criticism of Hamas, increasingly common in Gaza during the war, has faded as fear of retribution returns.

Like Israel, Hamas has so far only signed up to the first phase of President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan for peace. And in this conflict, interim arrangements have a habit of sticking. “Until we agree on the second phase, Hamas continues to rule,” says a negotiator. Even Mr Trump appeared to accept this. “We gave [Hamas] approval for a period of time,” he said on his flight to the Middle East.

Some in Israel, too, might see benefits in seeing their enemy retain control of Gaza, as they did after 2007. As before, they might argue that Hamas’s rule prevents the resumption of a political process towards a Palestinian state. It might also give Israel a good reason to keep pummelling Gaza.

Yet the war has changed the calculations for Hamas. In 2007 Gaza had cities, universities and hotels. It is now a wasteland. If it is not rebuilt, the group will lose what little popular support it still has. But those who might pay for that reconstruction are unlikely to do so if Hamas is in charge. Suhail al-Saqqa, a Gazan construction magnate says he won’t shift “a stone” if they are running things.

That might just persuade Hamas to cede power to “a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee” overseen by an international “board of peace”, as set out in Mr Trump’s plan. Hamas, Israel and their mediators have agreed on at least 14 names for the Palestinian committee.

They have yet to be released, but Majed Abu Ramadan, a doctor and minister of health in the Palestinian government of President Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank, has been mentioned. He comes from Gaza, and one of his brothers runs Gaza’s chamber of commerce. Nasser al-Kidwa, the nephew of the first Palestinian president, Yasser Arafat, was expelled from Fatah, Mr Abbas’s political faction, in 2021. He reconciled with Mr Abbas in October and has also been tipped as a Palestinian representative on Mr Trump’s board. Their appointments “would be like Fatah coming back to Gaza”, says an official (Hamas ousted Fatah in Gaza in 2007). The ageing Mr Abbas himself may yet hanker after a role. Mr Trump snubbed him by denying him a visa to the un General Assembly in New York last month. But in Sharm el-Sheikh he seemed to have reconsidered; the two men shook hands and chatted.

The success of any new governing body will depend in large part on the security situation. That will rely on a new Palestinian police force backed by an “international stabilisation force” (isf). Egypt is training the force and will commit the bulk of troops to it, says a Palestinian close to deliberations. Yet in this, too, Hamas’s role will be crucial. If the isf provides a buffer against Israel, Gaza’s armed groups, including Hamas, could accept it, says one of the leaders of a group that fought alongside Hamas. But if the force’s focus is on disarming Hamas and destroying its military infrastructure, including its tunnels, as set out in the Trump plan, Hamas and others have many ways to act as spoilers.

Get-arounds have been suggested. Britain has offered to help find a middle path with its experience of decommissioning in Northern Ireland. Weapons could be handed over to a third party, not Israel, says a Western diplomat. Hamas’s fighters could be trained and integrated into the new police force. And like the Irish Republican Army and Sinn Féin, Hamas might reinvent itself as a new political body. “You can’t afford to leave them out,” says the diplomat. Some gunmen seem amenable. “Gaza needs a break and a respite,” says Jamil Mazhar, the deputy leader of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, another armed group, and one of those negotiating with Hamas.

Behind the gunmen and the politicians, the contractors are scrambling for advantage. Several have already set up shop in Cairo, the gateway for Gaza’s reconstruction efforts. Some remain sceptical of international efforts to rebuild Gaza. “We’ll oppose the international trusteeship unless they go through us Gazans,” insists Zaher Kyle, a civil engineer from Gaza now in Cairo. Other contractors welcome the clout Mr Trump brings to raise funds and cut through the politics. “Don’t talk to me about Jerusalem or statehood. It’s about how to be a human being again in Gaza,” says Mr Saqqa. ■