Ending the war in Gaza is still fiendishly difficult

Earlier this week hopes for an imminent end to the war in Gaza were at their highest in months. As Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, touched down in Washington on July 7th, talks to finalise a ceasefire agreement had already begun 11,000km away in Qatar. President Donald Trump had told reporters he would be “very firm” with his guest in getting him to accept a deal.

But after two meetings between the two men at the White House, a resolution to the war that began more than 21 months ago remains elusive. At the time of writing Israel and Hamas, the Islamist organisation that controls parts of Gaza, were still struggling to reach an agreement on how Gaza will be run after the war, which has devastated the coastal strip and killed more than 57,000 people.

They have agreed in principle on the framework. During a 60-day truce, half of the estimated 50 Israeli hostages still held in Gaza, some 20 of whom are believed to be alive, would be released in exchange for more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners. During the same period there would be talks aimed at a permanent ceasefire. But a number of details are still in dispute.

Chief among these is Mr Netanyahu’s insistence that “Hamas will not be [in Gaza]” once the war is over. Hamas appears open to discussing a new “technocratic” government in Gaza, of which it will not officially be a member. Israel is demanding that Hamas, which triggered the war in October 2023 when it attacked southern Israel, agree to full disarmament and the exile of its surviving leaders. Hamas, for its part, wants Israel to let in more aid and provide guarantees that the ceasefire will permanently end the war.

Before leaving for Washington, Mr Netanyahu presented a plan to his cabinet that he said was intended to further Israel’s aims of destroying Hamas. The idea is to force nearly a third, at first, of Gazans into a corner of southern Gaza that has already been largely destroyed by Israel. Those entering the zone, where food would be distributed, would be searched for weapons and screened for Hamas membership. Meanwhile Israel could continue to search and destroy the depopulated areas. The plan passed unanimously, despite opposition from the chief of staff of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) and the government’s own legal advisers, who argue that such a project would constitute a war crime.

Some government insiders believe the plan is supposed to increase pressure on Hamas and placate the far-right members of Mr Netanyahu’s coalition who are against a ceasefire. Whether or not the prime minister actually intends to carry it out, he has directed Israel’s negotiators in Doha, Qatar’s capital, to insist that Israel continue to control the relevant corner during the 60-day truce. This has added another obstacle to reaching a deal as Hamas insists the IDF vacate the entire strip.

As negotiators haggle in Doha, the war in Gaza continues. In recent days dozens of Gazans have been killed in daily Israeli air strikes or while trying to get food from the controversial aid-distribution hubs set up by Israel and operated by American mercenaries. At least 500 people are reported to have been shot dead near the centres since they opened in late May. Fuel to operate the few remaining hospitals and a desalination plant is running out due to the Israeli blockade. Hamas now employs guerrilla tactics, carrying out ambushes against Israeli forces. On July 7th it killed five soldiers using roadside bombs.

Israel’s generals have told their political masters that little of military value remains in its operations. Many soldiers in the strip share that view. “We’re just dithering here, blowing up buildings that have already been destroyed and trying not to be ambushed,” says one.

Even so, Mr Netanyahu is continuing to hold out against Mr Trump’s entreaties to announce an end to the war. He has yet to propose a viable plan for a day-after scenario in Gaza. Yet there is still some ground for optimism that this round of talks will end in a deal. The president, flush from the ceasefire he imposed on Israel and Iran after America’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, likes the idea of himself as a world-historic peacemaker.

Mr Netanyahu, for his part, wants American backing for more strikes if Iran tries to revive its nuclear and missile programmes, as Israeli intelligence fears it is intent on. Mr Trump may not want to be dragged into another round of fighting, though, so Mr Netanyahu may feel he needs to accept a deal in Gaza to keep Mr Trump on side. At the same time, the threat from his far-right coalition partners to leave the government, should he decide to end the war, is becoming less compelling. Israel will have to hold an election by October 2026 at the latest. For Mr Netanyahu, whose public image has been somewhat boosted by the strikes against Iran, an earlier one may not seem like a bad bet.

Hamas, too, is under increasing pressure to compromise. With Iran drastically weakened, it has lost one of its main backers in the region. It still has the support of Qatar and Turkey, but both are anxious to remain in Mr Trump’s good books. Within Gaza, Hamas is enfeebled. A ceasefire now could be its best chance to retain some of what little power it has left.

Yet even if a deal is reached in the coming days or weeks, the reprieve is likely to be temporary. For the 60-day truce to lead to the end of the war, unlike during the first ceasefire earlier this year, Mr Trump will have to keep up pressure on both sides. And the would-be peacemaker-in-chief is not known for his attention span. ■