Israel’s weird war clock: 12 days for Iran, 21 months in Gaza

To donald trump, peace seems simple. On July 1st the American president announced on social media that Israel had agreed to the “necessary conditions” for a ceasefire in Gaza. Little matter that neither Hamas, the Islamists who still run parts of Gaza, nor Israel had endorsed the idea. Unless they did, warned Mr Trump, things would “ONLY GET WORSE”.

Yet ending the war in Gaza has proved time and again to be far from simple. There have been two temporary truces during 21 months of conflict, but no permanent peace. Israel continues to kill scores of Palestinians every day. Compare that with its recent fights against much mightier enemies. Israel’s war in Iran lasted 12 days; its victory over Hizbullah, the powerful Shia militia in Lebanon, took eight weeks on the ground. But in Gaza the Israeli government cannot even define what an end to the war looks like. Perhaps it is just another episode in a conflict between Jews and Palestinians that is over a century old and will not end with a ceasefire.

Or maybe this time will be different. An adviser to Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, says he is “optimistic”. The commander of the Israel Defence Forces (Idf) argues that Israel has all but achieved its war aims in Gaza. The prime minister’s far-right allies adamantly oppose ending the war, but the opposition’s leader, Yair Lapid, has promised to back a ceasefire. Mr Netanyahu is going to Washington next week to meet Donald Trump, who has made it clear he expects the war to end.

On the ground, though, it continues. The idf controls most of Gaza. It has once again told civilians in Gaza City to evacuate pending more attacks. The death toll climbs relentlessly. Over 500 Gazans have been killed trying to collect food from controversial aid hubs set up by Israel. Its troops are blamed for most of the deaths.

So why is Israel still fighting in Gaza, when it was able to bring its wars against Iran and Hizbullah to swift ends? Those foes presented unique challenges. Iran had thousands of ballistic missiles capable of hitting Israel. Hizbullah had Iranian-supplied weapons, trained fighters and controlled much of Lebanon and swathes of Syria. But the Israeli government had clear and achievable objectives in Iran and Lebanon. It aimed to crush the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions, and to end Hizbullah’s military presence on Israel’s northern border. Using guided munitions and intelligence provided by well-placed spies, Israel was able to achieve its aims in fairly short campaigns.

When Israel launched its war in Gaza it also had clearly-stated goals: to end Hamas’s rule; to destroy its military capabilities; and to rescue the 250 hostages held in Gaza. Since then Israel has devastated the coastal strip, assassinated nearly the entire Hamas leadership and killed over 55,000 people (it says a third were combatants). But Hamas still controls parts of Gaza. Its military wing is enfeebled, but there is no shortage of young men prepared to fight. And 50 hostages remain in captivity.

As the war has dragged on, Israel has suffered from mission creep. Its leaders talk vaguely of “total victory”. But few in the security establishment think much more can be achieved in Gaza by military means. Five idf divisions are operating there. “We’re mainly waiting to see if there’s a ceasefire,” says an officer. “There’s barely any advance on the ground.” Most Israelis want a ceasefire. Only a minority think that eradicating Hamas, by depopulating Gaza and leaving Israeli troops there, is viable or desirable. But those who keep Mr Netanyahu in power do.

Israel’s decision to continue to batter Gaza goes beyond military tactics and political calculation. “For over half a century Israel has been unable to decide on a national strategy,” says Or Rabinowitz at the Hebrew University. “Does it ultimately want to have diplomatic agreements or is it on a messianic quest for the Greater Land of Israel?” Israel’s wars with Iran and Hizbullah were “classic counter-proliferation campaigns”, she continues, “where your aim is to degrade your enemy’s capabilities and force it to accept an arms-control treaty through diplomacy”. In Gaza the prime minister and his ultra-religious allies “have been fighting a messianic war that trumps any pragmatic strategy”.

Israel was able to reach peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan because those disputes were a matter of agreeing where borders should be, says Tom Segev, a historian. Perhaps such a peace might be possible with Iran. “But with the Palestinians, Israel has a conflict which is about the very roots of each side’s national identity.” Gaza, whose population mostly descends from the refugees who fled during the nakba (catastrophe), as Palestinians call the war of 1948, “has no solution yet”. Even the many Israelis who oppose the far-right’s vision of ethnic cleansing in Gaza can see no alternative future relationship with it. “Hamas was prepared to sacrifice over 50,000 of its people on the dream they could one day displace Israel. And Israel was prepared to kill those 50,000 in a delusion that Gaza would no longer pose a threat.”

“Unlike Gaza, where we see only hatred, most of the interactions on social media between Israelis and Iranians are very positive,” says Sharona Mazalian of Tel Aviv University’s Centre for Iranian Studies. The two countries were allies until the Islamic Revolution. “It was an alliance based on their both being non-Arab…outsiders in the Middle East,” says Dr Mazalian. Israelis and Iranians now have a common enemy in the regime, she believes: “They can’t wait to live at peace again.” For Gaza, there seems to be no such hope. ■