Donald Trump bypasses Israel on the path to peace in Gaza

The release on May 12th of Edan Alexander, an American-Israeli soldier held in Gaza for 19 months, ended the 21-year-old’s ordeal but left many questions unanswered. Was this a one-off gesture by Hamas, the Islamists in Gaza, for an American president about to arrive in the region? Could it be the start of diplomacy by Donald Trump to force an end to the war?

For Mr Alexander, his family and the many Israelis who have been campaigning for the hostages in Gaza, his release brought relief and joy. For Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, it was a moment of diplomatic embarrassment.

Not only had personal representatives of Mr Trump negotiated with Hamas against Israel’s express wishes, but Mr Netanyahu was left out of the loop. “It doesn’t mean they didn’t know what was happening,” said one Israeli official. “But for the prime minister to be aware of American negotiations with Israel’s enemies through the intelligence reports, and not because they were updated by the administration, is a very bad position to be in.”

Mr Trump said he hoped Mr Alexander’s release was “the first of those final steps necessary to end this brutal conflict”. But he did not mention Israel’s insistence that war can end only with Hamas vanquished and banished. As the sole living hostage in Gaza with American citizenship, Mr Alexander was a major bargaining chip for Hamas. It seems safe to assume that Mr Trump assured them that he would push Mr Netanyahu to end the blockade of Gaza and accept a long-term truce in return for Mr Alexander’s release.

Israel plans to “expand” its military operations in Gaza throughout most of the strip, forcing Gazans into encampments around “hubs” where Israel would distribute meagre rations. That now seems at odds with the president’s wishes as well as those of a majority of Israelis who, according to recent polls, want to end the war with a deal to bring the hostages home.

This diplomatic setback is only the latest episode in the apparent breakdown of co-ordination between Israel and America. On May 6th Mr Trump announced that he was ending America’s seven-week bombing campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, after they had agreed to cease attacks on American ships in the Red Sea. There was no mention of the Houthis’ frequent missile attacks on Israel; nor was its government notified in advance.

Four weeks earlier, sitting in the White House, Mr Netanyahu was blindsided by Mr Trump’s announcement of talks with Iran about its nuclear programme. In his first term Mr Trump had, to Mr Netanyahu’s delight, withdrawn from a previous nuclear deal with Iran. Now the American president could be on track to signing one of his own, in which Israel has no say.

All this has been building up as Mr Trump has visited Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, but pointedly not Israel, on his tour of the Middle East. Mr Netanyahu hoped that Mr Trump might set in motion “normalisation” between Israel and Saudi Arabia. But the Saudis have made it clear that there will be no diplomatic engagement with Israel while the war in Gaza continues. And Mr Trump seems to have other priorities. He wants to agree to massive arms sales and even a civil nuclear-energy deal with his Gulf allies.

Is it personal? In 2020 Mr Trump was enraged when Mr Netanyahu congratulated Joe Biden on his election victory. Before the inauguration, Steve Witkoff, the president’s Middle East envoy, forced Israel to accept a ceasefire in Gaza.

But after Mr Trump’s inauguration it seemed the ties had been mended. Mr Netanyahu was the first foreign leader invited to the White House, where Mr Trump presented a far-fetched plan to remove Gaza’s population. Israel then broke the ceasefire, cut off aid and restarted its war. Over 2,000 Gazans have since been killed.

Now it seems Mr Trump’s patience has run out. In a meeting with hostages’ families Mr Witkoff is reported to have said: “Israel is prolonging the war, even though we do not see where further progress can be made.” Mr Netanyahu has been forced to send a team to Qatar for more talks with Hamas. American officials have made it clear that they want speedy progress.

Mr Netanyahu has known the president longer than any other world leader has. In the 1980s, as Israel’s ambassador to the un, he met the thrusting entrepreneur in New York. Israel was trying to stop the Reagan administration from dealing directly with the Palestine Liberation Organisation. Mr Netanyahu and his colleagues failed. Four decades later the Israeli prime minister is once again watching from the sidelines as another American administration engages with Israel’s enemies.

Mr Netanyahu has only himself to blame. He relied on his influence in Washington to hold back any independent initiatives to end the war. He held out against Mr Biden. Now he is up against a president who demands immediate results. Mr Trump is not waiting for him. ■