Canada’s Trudeau trap

Most outsiders think of Canada as a freezing but pleasant place. It is open and tolerant, and its people are famously nice. But lately the country’s politics have become a cauldron of recrimination. The reign of Justin Trudeau, the prime minister since 2015, is nearing what appears to be a bad end. As its poll ratings collapse, his party may even oust him.

Mr Trudeau’s journey from a centre-left hero to a toxic liability has lessons for mainstream politicians everywhere. His brand of sanctimonious, and sometimes illiberal, identity politics is no substitute for effective government. Unless leaders come up with practical answers to the problems that the electorate cares about, including the effects of mass migration and housing shortages, government by virtue ultimately alienates many more people than it inspires.

For 92 of the past 128 years, Canada has been run by a party named after liberalism. When Mr Trudeau was first elected he stood for a modern vision for his country: multicultural, climate-conscious and keen to win influence by behaving responsibly in an unstable world. After Donald Trump was elected president in 2016, the contrast between Canada’s saintly government and the nativist, jingoistic politics to its south was stark. Initially Mr Trudeau achieved many successes, from reforming welfare to skilfully helping negotiate a new trade deal with America and Mexico to replace NAFTA.

Yet it has gradually become clear that Canada’s biggest challenges have festered. Immigration is a good example. Last year the population grew at its fastest rate since 1957; it has expanded by 16% since Mr Trudeau entered office, owing to the arrival of people from abroad. He thought opening the door wider made Canada virtuous. But the Liberals failed to ensure that housing, education and health care kept pace with demography. The result has been a sharp loss of public willingness to keep borders open: 44% of Canadians say that immigration is excessive, the highest for a quarter of a century.

A big reason for this anger is a shortage of housing in cities, which has led to soaring prices and a build-up of mortgage debt. The government has had almost a decade to stimulate house-building by liberalising rules, but has so far failed to make much difference. By one estimate, Canada will need a third more residential properties to house its population. A new plan launched this year has not yet boosted construction.

It is a similar story with climate change. Canada is rightly praised for its tax on carbon emissions. But the patchy redistribution of the revenue it brings in, and the threat it poses to towns and firms that rely on fossil fuels or their extraction, have created a large and vocal opposition to Mr Trudeau’s climate policy. Or consider defence, where Canada’s approach is negligent. Disgracefully, it spends only 1.3% of GDP on its armed forces, freeloading off other NATO members even as the world becomes more dangerous.

Any government in office for almost a decade makes mistakes and creates enemies. But a feature of Mr Trudeau’s administration has been its illiberal approach to dissent. It has frequently dismissed its critics as bigots, or unreasonably used emergency legal powers against them, as it did when truckers protested during the pandemic. It has also tried to curb free speech. Even now, when reality and polling have forced him to admit that he has a problem, Mr Trudeau acknowledges only that some Canadians are “anxious” about his policies, not that they face real difficulties.

A national election must be held within a year. The Liberal Party could soon eject Mr Trudeau. After that, Canada will switch from being a failing liberal experiment to a test of whether political systems can answer the electorate’s concerns without veering towards populism and lasting polarisation. The opposition Conservatives say they are focusing hard on realistic solutions to Canada’s problems, and they have some useful ideas on speeding up construction, but sometimes they display disappointingly Trumpian tendencies. The Liberal Party is only just starting to wrestle with life after Mr Trudeau. When picking his successor it should remember that politicians need style to win office, but substance to govern. ■