Zohran Mamdani lost in parts of NYC that look most like America

ZOHRAN MAMDANI, New York City’s mayor-elect, is the rising star of America’s progressive left. In a little over a year the 34-year-old political novice put together a diverse coalition of voters who delivered him a nine-point victory on November 4th. Turnout was unusually high for a mayoral race, a sign of the enthusiasm that his campaign generated.

Democrats from outside the five boroughs are now wondering what they can learn from the young socialist. But the New York adage—if you can make it here, you can make it anywhere—does not apply to American politics. The city’s electorate is more liberal and far less white than America’s. Our analysis of the results shows that the parts of New York that most resemble the rest of the country backed Mr Mamdani’s centrist rival, Andrew Cuomo, a former Democratic governor who ran as an independent.

Mr Mamdani did best in the young, diverse neighbourhoods stretching from north Brooklyn to west Queens, known as the “commie corridor”. These are full of 25- to 39-year-olds, and have relatively few white residents and homeowners. Mr Cuomo, by contrast, carried Staten Island, the Orthodox Jewish enclaves of Brooklyn and parts of Queens—more conservative areas than the rest of the city.

In precincts that voted for Mr Mamdani, non-Hispanic whites made up only 23% of residents, compared with 53% in those won by Mr Cuomo and 58% nationwide. In 2024 Donald Trump won 22% of the vote in Mamdani precincts; in Cuomo ones his share was close to the 50% he won nationwide.

Comparisons with other elections are tricky: the mayoral contest was a three-way race, complicated by scandals from Mr Cuomo’s time as governor and by Curtis Sliwa, the eccentric Republican candidate, who is an outsider in Mr Trump’s MAGA party. Mr Cuomo pulled some moderate Democrats away from Mr Mamdani and some moderate Republicans, from Mr Sliwa.

Even so, the data show the limits of Mr Mamdani’s appeal. He won 50% of the vote, well below the 68% that Kamala Harris got when she carried the city in 2024. In the few precincts where Mr Mamdani did outperform Ms Harris, the largest ethnic group tended to be Hispanic or Asian (see charts below). He did much worse in precincts where black people were the largest ethnic group.

New York has other idiosyncrasies that make it especially receptive to Mr Mamdani’s message. His promise to make buses free resonated in a city reliant on public transport (just 41% of residents own cars in the precincts that he won). A proposal to freeze prices for nearly half of the city’s rentals appealed to tenants, who make up three-quarters of households in precincts won by Mr Mamdani. But these headline-grabbing pledges alienate moderate voters and high-earning ones, whose taxes fund much of the city’s budget. Most of his policies will also need the approval of the state’s government.

In elections in Virginia and New Jersey, states that look more like the rest of America, Democratic candidates also focused on affordability. But they did so with pragmatic policy proposals that appeal to a broader range of voters. The lesson for Democrats of Tuesday’s elections is not to adopt Mr Mamdani’s ideology but to meet voters where they are.■