Who do Americans blame for the government shutdown?

PROLONGED SHUTDOWNS of America’s federal government have never gone well for the party the public sees as provoking them. On all three previous occasions when a shutdown has lasted at least a week, the perceived instigators—Republicans in each case—were blamed and failed to extract any serious policy concessions. This time Republicans accuse the Democrats of holding routine federal services hostage. Yet so far the Democrats do not appear to be paying any political price. In fact, the earliest evidence suggests that they may even have gained a slight edge in the messaging battle.

Shortly before the shutdown began on October 1st, YouGov, a pollster, asked respondents which party they would hold more responsible if a deal was not reached. One-third of participants said the Republicans, 27% the Democrats. In the latest survey, conducted October 4th through 6th, the share blaming the Democrats rose by three percentage points, to 30%. The proportion naming the Republicans as the main culprit, however, jumped eight points to 41%. The Democrats’ net advantage over the Republicans rose from six points to 11.

Now that the shutdown is a reality, Democratic and Republican respondents have begun to move off the fence—away from blaming “both sides equally” or saying they’re “not sure”—and into their expected camps. But Democratic opinion has hardened more than Republican opinion. Some 85% of those who voted for Kamala Harris blame the Republicans, against 4% who blame the Democrats—an 81-point gap.  Donald Trump’s voters were less united to begin with: last week they blamed the Democrats more than the Republicans by a comparatively modest 51 points, a lead that has since widened to 60. Just 12% of Ms Harris’s voters now say they blame both sides equally or are unsure, compared with 23% of Mr Trump’s.

Demographic breakdowns tell a similar story. Among Republican-leaning groups such as men and white people, blame remains roughly evenly divided between the two parties.  Democrats, by contrast, started out with an advantage in their core constituencies and have expanded it as the shutdown wears on. Over the past week, the margin by which participants blaming Republicans exceeded those blaming Democrats rose by nine percentage points among women, 18 points among Hispanics and 22 among blacks.

Democrats may not enjoy this advantage in party unity for long. Large shares of the president’s supporters tend to embrace whatever position his administration espouses. For example, following a recent speech about physical fitness in the armed forces by Pete Hegseth, the secretary of war, 56% of YouGov respondents who recalled voting for Mr Trump said that they considered overweight generals and admirals to be a serious problem. Now the message being put forth by the administration is that congressional Democrats care more about expanding health-care benefits for undocumented immigrants than about existing government health programmes. So far it hasn’t caught on: in a separate YouGov poll just 22% of self-identified Republicans said they believe this. But if the president and his allies begin to push this message harder, that number could rise quickly.

Fortunately for Democrats, they also seem to have an edge in the middle of the electorate. Independents said they blamed Republicans more than Democrats by a margin of 41% to 17%; the margin was 31% to 18% before the shutdown began. Self-described moderates are moving in a similar direction. The Democrats’ advantage among this group has widened from 11 points (30% to 19%) last week to 22 points (39% to 17%) now. If the Democrats continue to gain ground with these constituencies, shutting down the government to force a change in policy might work for the first time.■