The great dealmaker is conspicuously short of trade deals

The world’s trading system is now a reality-TV show. “We invite you to participate in the extraordinary Economy of the United States, the Number One Market in the World,” President Donald Trump proclaimed in letters dispatched to many of America’s partners on July 7th. Then he threatened them with tariffs set to take effect on August 1st: 25% for Japan and South Korea, 32% for Indonesia and 36% Thailand.

How serious is this deadline? Mr Trump first announced “reciprocal” tariffs on April 2nd, only to withdraw them a week later, and grant countries another 90 days to reach deals. As the new deadline of July 9th loomed, it became clear that the administration’s boast of “90 deals in 90 days” would fall flat. Negotiators have lined up only two “frameworks”, with Britain and Vietnam. Rather than admit failure, Mr Trump has doubled down, issuing a new deadline and posting threats to the world.

Trade deals, it turns out, take time. Japan jumped to the front of the queue in April after Ishiba Shigeru, its prime minister, had a friendly phone call with Mr Trump. Its chief trade negotiator even donned a MAGA hat for the cameras during a visit to Washington. But after seven rounds of talks in three months, America is learning just how slow trade negotiations can be. Deals typically take 18 months to strike because they are complex and politically fraught. Although Mr Trump wants talks with Japan to settle all of America’s grievances, from the trade deficit and defence spending to non-tariff barriers such as regulations on cars, Japan has its own constraints. Its government has ruled out concessions that would anger farmers ahead of an election to the upper house of parliament on July 20th or put its car industry at risk. Meanwhile, American tariffs on Japanese autos are already in place under a separate measure, meaning they were never tied to the July 9th deadline.

Trade negotiations also require clarity on aims, which is in short supply in Mr Trump’s talks with South Korea. In March he claimed that the Asian country maintained tariffs four times higher than America’s, baffling officials. South Korea has a free-trade agreement, renegotiated during Mr Trump’s first term, under which its tariff on American manufactured goods is near zero. Last week, Lee Jae-myung, South Korea’s president, admitted that “the two sides are not really clear what they want.” And the agenda has since sprawled. America has raised issues including digital taxes on its tech firms, cost-sharing for its troops, network fees for platforms such as Netflix, South Korean investment in shipbuilding and an Alaskan pipeline, and restrictions on the export of location-based data by Google and others.

With Mr Trump’s tariff deadline now, in many cases, extended by three weeks, America’s trading partners face a difficult calculation. They suspect he may delay again if they fail to reach an agreement, but cannot rely on him doing so. Such an imbalance—with export-reliant partners suffering more than America in the event of a deterioration in relations—gives Mr Trump leverage. Most will try to defuse the threat by conceding where they can, promising to buy more American gas and farm goods or to tweak regulations. Where concessions are especially unpalatable, they will stall and hope that domestic politics shifts or that small offers buy time. The goal is to yield just enough to avoid the full weight of tariffs, while avoiding outright capitulation.

Over a dozen tariff letters have gone out; more are expected in coming days. For now, one name is missing: the European Union. With Canada, China and Mexico enjoying separate negotiations, and Britain and Vietnam signed up, the EU is the biggest partner still in play. It is racing to secure a preliminary deal to lock in a tariff rate of 10%. The bloc wants exemptions for aeroplane parts, wine and better terms for its carmakers, including a deal that would allow those with plants in America to ship more vehicles from Europe at lower rates. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission’s president, has also hinted at granting leeway for American tech firms on digital rules and at pursuing closer co-operation with America on China, even as the bloc has prepared an arsenal of counter-measures that it could turn to if negotiations head south. Officials are working on a slim “agreement in principle”. If it is signed in the coming days, others may look on in envy—and wonder if the EU’s threat of retaliation helped seal the deal. ■