Donald Trump brokers a peace plan in the Caucasus

THE SOUTH CAUCASUS is a mosaic of warring rivals and closed borders. Lookout posts and bunkers dot its frontiers. On August 8th Donald Trump met Armenia’s prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, and Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, in an effort to end the conflict between their two countries. At the White House the trio signed a peace declaration and agreements on trade and security. Crucially, Armenia agreed to open an American-operated transport route across its territory, linking Azerbaijan to its exclave, Nakhchivan (see map). The corridor will be called the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). “A great honour for me,” said America’s president.

Mr Aliyev and Mr Pashinyan vowed to nominate him for a Nobel peace prize. The deal will diminish Russia, which has long meddled in the conflict, as well as Iran. It is not a formal peace treaty. But it paves the way to a bigger prize: an end to one of the world’s most intractable conflicts and a regional detente, including the normalisation of Armenia’s relations with Turkey, Azerbaijan’s ally. Whether that happens will be a test of American diplomacy and of Armenia and Azerbaijan themselves. Russia could still sow trouble.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been fighting for more than 35 years. In the late 1980s, as the Soviet Union disintegrated, Armenian-backed separatists seized Nagorno-Karabakh, a region within Azerbaijan, and later built a buffer zone. For years the conflict was frozen. Azerbaijan, whose oil-and-gas industry boomed, built a formidable army equipped with Turkish and Israeli drones and missiles. In 2020 it recaptured the area around Nagorno-Karabakh. In 2023 it took back the territory itself; some 100,000 Armenians fled. Russia, which had supported Armenia during the 1990s, stood back. It did so partly to punish Mr Pashinyan, a democrat, who rose to power in 2018 in a peaceful revolution that swept Armenia’s Kremlin-backed rulers from office.

Since early 2024 the two sides have been inching towards a peace treaty. In previous negotiations they have relied on intermediaries such as Russia, Turkey or the Minsk Group, a multilateral forum set up in the 1990s to deal with the conflict. But recently they have been speaking directly. In March they agreed on a draft treaty.

Two obstacles remained. The first was Azerbaijan’s insistence that Armenia remove references to Nagorno-Karabakh from its constitution, which will require a referendum. The second was Azerbaijan’s demand for a transport corridor to Nakhchivan. In 2020, as part of a ceasefire deal, Mr Aliyev and Mr Pashinyan agreed to open a route supervised by Russian officials. Both men later resiled from the idea that Russia should be involved, but could not agree on an alternative.

Mr Trump provided a partial solution. For months, American negotiators have been shuttling back and forth to the region to thrash it out. Armenia will lease the land for 99 years to America, which will hire contractors to run the route. The TRIPP gives America a long-term stake in the region’s security. Iran is furious. Russia coolly stated the deal was “positive”, but warned America not to repeat the “counterproductive outcomes” of its interventions in the Middle East.

America has offered Armenia and Azerbaijan sweeteners, too. The boss of SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state energy firm, visited Washington with Mr Aliyev to sign a deal with ExxonMobil, an American oil giant. Armenia, which lacks Azerbaijan’s natural resources, has less to offer America’s mercantile president, but will get some support on artificial intelligence and semiconductors. Mr Trump also waived sanctions, introduced in 1992, that have prohibited military co-operation with Azerbaijan. He announced a “strategic partnership” with Azerbaijan, which is a staunch ally of Israel.

The peace deal could also pave the way for Turkey and Armenia to bury the hatchet. The standoff with Armenia has been “Turkey’s Achilles heel, in terms of its regional influence”, says Nigar Goksel of the International Crisis Group, a global think-tank. Rapprochement between the two began in 2008, but stalled.

To accommodate Mr Aliyev, Turkey had made normalisation with Armenia conditional on a peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia. That obstacle now appears to be gone. Turkey may decide to open its border with Armenia, which it shut in solidarity with Azerbaijan during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 1993. “Things will start moving fast,” Ms Goksel predicts.

Yet amid the Trumpian pomp, the deal leaves much to be done. In Washington Messrs Aliyev and Pashinyan put their initials on a formal peace treaty, but did not sign it. Azerbaijan’s demand for Armenia to change its constitution is unmet. The TRIPP’s benefits will be concentrated in Nakhchivan and Syunik, the sparsely populated Armenian region it will cross. But the hope is that it could unlock more dealmaking. Azerbaijan and Armenia could start talking about opening other parts of their fortified border.

There are reasons to be cautious. Mr Pashinyan is unpopular: just 13% of Armenians say they trust him. Nationalist hardliners, including Robert Kocharyan, a former president, accuse him of compromising Armenian sovereignty. (Mr Kocharyan, for his part, sold Armenian assets to Russia in exchange for debt relief during the 2000s.) Holding the referendum that Azerbaijan demands will be divisive, and an election next year will give Russia a chance to interfere. In June Armenia’s government said it had foiled a coup planned for September.

Azerbaijan could also disrupt the peace process. Mr Aliyev, an autocrat who succeeded his father in 2003, had previously threatened to seize a transport corridor by force. He has indulged in irredentist fantasies such as calling Armenia “West Azerbaijan”. Laurence Broers of Chatham House, a British think-tank, says such talk will be “kryptonite” for peace if it continues. Azerbaijan’s military dominance only makes it harder for Armenia to trust it.

Another risk is that America loses interest. Historically, peace in the south Caucasus has often been brought by outside powers. “It was Russia and Turkey in 2020, it was the Minsk Group in the 1990s, it was the Bolsheviks in the 1920s,” says Mr Broers. Mr Trump has positioned America as the latest peace broker in a tough neighbourhood. Whether it lasts will not be in his control. ■