Poland’s presidential election leaves the country exhausted

POLAND’S PRESIDENTIAL election, which pits a centrist liberal against a hard-right nationalist, has been watched closely all across Europe. A liberal win would cement Poland’s newfound influence in the European Union’s mainstream; a populist one would shift it towards the EU’s growing bloc of nationalist insurgents. Just after voting ended on the evening of June 1st, two exit polls gave Rafal Trzaskowski (pictured), the candidate of the ruling liberal camp, a razor-thin edge. But a later exit poll gave the opposition candidate, Karol Nawrocki, a narrow lead.

The early exit polls, one by Ipsos and one by OGB, a Polish pollster, gave Mr Trzaskowski 50.3% and 50.2% of the vote respectively. That put him perhaps half a percentage point ahead of Mr Nawrocki, a conservative historian put up by the populist Law and Justice (PiS) party and supported by the Trump administration. But the later poll put Mr Nawrocki ahead with 50.7% of the vote. With the contest so close, the winner may not be announced until late on June 2nd.

At Mr Trzaskowski’s election party in Warsaw, where he has served as mayor since 2018, the news of the early polls led to a modest celebration. Mr Trzaskowski claimed victory, though the polls’ results were within the margins of error. The narrow win, he said, reinforced his commitment to reach out to Poles who did not vote for him. The combative Mr Nawrocki, meanwhile, said he still expected to win, and railed against the campaign Mr Trzaskowski and his allies in government had run. “They took our money,” said the PiS-backed candidate, “they set the institutions of the Polish state on us, they lied, lied, lied.”

Mr Trzaskowski needed to mobilise left-wing and undecided voters, many of whom stayed home during the election’s first round on May 18th. They did turn out, though perhaps not in sufficient numbers to give him the win. Turnout in the second round, according to Ipsos, reached 72.8%, the highest of any presidential election in Poland’s history. Mr Trzaskowski’s supporters could be seen streaming to polling stations from early morning on, wearing necklaces of large red beads—a traditional Polish jewellery item that became a symbol of Mr Trzaskowski’s camp after a left-wing candidate who lost in the first round presented one to his wife.

If Mr Trzaskowski manages to pull out the win, it would pave the way for the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk to move ahead with its stalled agenda. Mr Tusk was swept into power in 2023 on the promise of restoring the rule of law and purging Poland’s institutions of cronies installed by PiS while it was in power from 2015 to 2023. But his progress has been disappointing: the outgoing president, the PiS-aligned Andrzej Duda, has blocked some reforms and appointments, and forced the government to shelve others. Discord within Mr Tusk’s own coalition, which runs the gamut from cosmopolitan progressives to agrarian conservatives, is also to blame.

If his ally wins, Mr Tusk will have no more excuses. His government now has more than two years to pursue its agenda, which includes sweeping reforms of the courts and state media, as well as a new abortion law. Failure could mean a harsh reckoning in the parliamentary elections in 2027. Polls show that the country is fed up with stasis, and that Mr Tusk has become unpopular. A poll published this week by CBOS, the state pollster, showed that only 32% of Poles supported the government and 44% opposed it.

Should Mr Nawrocki win, however, he will be able to scuttle Mr Tusk’s agenda. The coalition government does not have the two-thirds majority in parliament needed to override a presidential veto. Worse yet for Mr Tusk, PiS will no doubt try to pick off members of his coalition and bring down his government.

The campaign leaves Polish politics exhausted. It has been largely negative, with both candidates presenting their rivals as puppets. Mr Nawrocki has spent the final stretch of the campaign fighting off accusations of a criminal past. Journalists have reported that in the early 2000s he arranged sex workers for guests at a hotel where he worked, which he denies. He has admitted to taking part in mass brawls of football hooligans while in his 20s. He has also faced scorn for reportedly cheating a pensioner out of his flat. Mr Nawrocki and his camp insist this is all a smear campaign.

Whichever candidate emerges as the winner, the election—and especially the strong showing by minor far-right candidates in the first round—has pushed Polish politics towards the Eurosceptic right. Mr Nawrocki, already on the hard right, has moved even further, notably on Ukraine. In an interview on May 22nd he said he opposed Ukraine joining NATO, breaking with the stance of previous PiS presidents.

That has shocked observers in Brussels, says Tomasz Bielecki, a correspondent there for Polityka, a Polish weekly. They have also been concerned by the evolution of Mr Tusk, who until 2019 served as president of the European Council. Earlier this year he refused to comply with the EU’s migration pact and attacked the EU Green Deal, its strategy to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. “There is a hope that when the campaign is over, Tusk will return to being more of a Brussels man again,” says Mr Bielecki. But with his side having barely weathered, and perhaps lost, a presidential election, Mr Tusk will find he has far less freedom of action than he had hoped. ■