Quantum computing is getting real—and Britain wants to lead

At the UK National Quantum Technologies Showcase in London on November 7th, an annual event for what has long been seen as a key industry of the future, foreign stalls appeared for the first time. They included ones from Australia, Denmark and South Korea. The night before, at a VIP event, waiters handed out smoky single-malt whisky to a crowd of international quantum researchers. Seema Malhotra, a Foreign Office minister, praised partnerships with America and Japan and Britain’s return to Horizon, the European Union’s €96bn ($111bn) research programme. If quantum computing is going to take off, Britain wants to be at the heart of it.

For years quantum computers seemed exciting in theory but not much good in practice. Now the ability to combine qubits—bits that can be both zero and one at once—into machines that can solve some problems exponentially faster than today’s computers suddenly feels within reach. Progress in error correction is making quantum systems more reliable. Researchers are developing a quantum-navigation system for the London Underground. McKinsey, a consultancy, reckons that quantum computing could create between $620bn and $1.3trn of value across the automotive industry, chemicals, finance and life sciences by 2035. Some even wonder whether quantum could be bigger than artificial intelligence.

Britain would be well placed if it is. Unlike AI, quantum technologies do not demand vast spending for those involved to stay competitive. Britain has a strong research base in the field. Of the world’s 513 firms focusing solely on quantum, some 64 are British—second only to America’s 148. With Riverlane, which develops error-correction systems, Phasecraft, which works on algorithms, and companies like Orca and Oxford Quantum Circuits building full quantum computers using two different approaches, it has promising firms across the quantum “stack”. Can Britain turn this promise into a lasting advantage?

“We used to think that if we pumped up the science, commercial success would somehow follow,” says Roger McKinlay, quantum technologies director for UK Research and Innovation, a publicly funded research agency. Yet on quantum research Britain has been more actively engaged, launching the National Quantum Technologies Programme (NQTP) to help commercialise research back in 2014. The country is also picking niches. “We’re not going to grow every part of the system,” says Kedar Pandya, chair of the NQTP board. Both argue that Britain is becoming “stickier” for firms, with abundant talent, friendly regulation and eager investors. British quantum startups attract the second-most venture funding, albeit a long way behind American ones.

Britain still loses firms too early. In September IonQ, an American hardware company buoyed by a frothy share price, bought Oxford Ionics, a British rival, for $1.1bn. Yet the government is taking a more active approach than it has in some other nascent industries. The National Security Investment Act of 2021 lets the government screen deals in sensitive sectors. Ministers used these powers to insist that Oxford Ionics’ hardware, research and intellectual property must stay in Britain.

A recent report from the Tony Blair Institute, a think-tank, highlights gaps: too few suppliers of enabling kit such as lasers and photonics; reliance on foreign providers of ultra-cold refrigerators; and little domestic capacity for quantum-chip packaging. Despite having more startups, Britain’s largest quantum-hardware grants have been about one-tenth the size of those of Australia and France. Given that quantum machines may be able to crack today’s cryptography as soon as the 2030s, both the public and private sectors will need to move much faster on post-quantum encryption.

Co-operation with foreign partners may help achieve scale. Both openness and focus will be needed if Britain is to thrive. “The next industrial revolution will be quantum,” wrote William Hague, a former foreign secretary who published the report with Sir Tony Blair. “History won’t forgive us if Britain falls behind.” ■