In English local elections Labour won where it needed to

Sir Keir Starmer had plenty of choices to take a victory lap after local elections in England on May 2nd. The Labour leader could have nipped to Swindon, home to a classic marginal constituency, where Labour increased its majority on the council. He could have visited Nuneaton, a bellwether seat in the Midlands, where the party snatched control. In the end Sir Keir plumped for Northallerton Town football club in North Yorkshire. Labour had just won the first ever mayoralty of the region, which is home to some of the safest Tory seats in the country. That would have upset the local Tory MP, one Rishi Sunak.

The main story of local elections was one of Labour steamrolling its way to government. From Manchester to London, Labour won all the mayoralties up for grabs bar one. It scooped up councillors and councils across a range of target seats. In contrast the Conservatives were pummelled. With one council yet to declare its results, the Tories have lost 473 councillors, at the top end of the worst expectations and almost half of the seats they were defending. The Liberal Democrats have won more contests than the governing party.

To cap it all off, Labour also won in a by-election in Blackpool South with the third-biggest swing since the second world war. Polls have long pointed to a large Labour majority at the next election, and so do these local-election results. But it could be on the cusp of something bigger still. Labour won wherever it needed to and even in a few places, such as North Yorkshire, it really did not.

Even places the Conservatives had been optimistic of holding fell. Andy Street, the well-regarded mayor of the West Midlands, lost by a tiny margin after a partial recount. Several factors had been in Mr Street’s favour. Since their main job is to spend money and moan about Westminster, regional mayors enjoy a big boost from incumbency. Although the Conservatives are unpopular, his attachment to the party is loose at best. Many local voters were furious over Labour’s handling of the war in Gaza. Yet none of this was enough to save Mr Street.

Only Tees Valley, a post-industrial region in the north-east, provided any real relief for the Conservatives. Ben Houchen, a popular if controversial local mayor, won there with 54% of the vote. Yet this was a victory in spite of Mr Sunak’s government, not because of it. Mr Houchen offers a Boris Johnson-style vision of politics that combines big spending and chaos. The word “Conservative” rarely appeared in Lord Houchen’s literature.

Mr Sunak nonetheless headed to Teesside, a short drive from Northallerton, on May 3rd to celebrate with Lord Houchen. There were, after all, few other places to go. Jonathan Reynolds, the Labour shadow business secretary, compared the duo to “a couple who’ve been in marriage counselling putting on a good show for their kids”. Whether the kids buy it remains to be seen. Rumours of a leadership challenge by MPs have dogged Mr Sunak for months. Only the proximity of the general election, due by the end of January 2025, and the absurdity of Mr Sunak’s replacement being the third “unelected” prime minister in a row protects him.

Sir Keir is not without some problems of his own. The Gaza issue hurt Labour in some heavily Muslim areas, such as Blackburn, where the topic is a neuralgic one. In Birmingham an anonymous Labour adviser blamed the party’s poor showing on “Hamas”. The party distanced itself from these words but the damage was done. It was not the first instance of Labour cack-handedness when it comes to Gaza; it will not be the last.

Future problems took shape, too. The Green Party picked up 74 extra councillors and narrowly missed out on taking control of Bristol’s city council. The party is beginning to resemble Japanese knotweed: fast-growing and likely to undermine the foundations of even the most stable homes. It has a compelling pitch that appeals to very different types of voters. In parts of the country, such as East Anglia, the Green Party’s eco-NIMBYism appeals to wavering Tory voters. In places like Bristol, its staunch positions on social issues, Gaza and the environment can scoop up much more left-wing voters.

But as far as Sir Keir is concerned, these are problems for Labour to grapple with in government rather than at the next election. Labour is losing a few voters in places it can afford and gaining far more in the places it needs. For every dip it suffered in places such as Blackburn, it romped away somewhere more electorally crucial, such as Swindon. All political parties have to try and keep a coalition of voters together. It is far better to do this from office than in opposition. At Northallerton Town FC, even the sewage works next door would have smelled sweet. ■