Israelis do not like to think about estrangement from America

THE ISRAELI grandees who have made quick jaunts to Washington this month to check in with the great and the good have not had the reception they were hoping for. “We heard from usually pro-Israel Congress members and senators in the Democratic Party that from now on conditional aid to Israel would be the party’s default position,” said a senior Israeli politician. “But what was even more surprising was the criticism we were getting from the Republicans we met. They are also under pressure from their constituents when it comes to Israel.”

At home, too, there is a sense of growing isolation. In a speech this week the prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, in response to a threat by the European Union to suspend its free-trade agreement with Israel, declared that the economy would have to develop “autarkic features” to shield it from international boycotts. That sent the stockmarket sliding, prompting a hasty clarification from Mr Netanyahu that he was talking only about the defence industry. Anyway, he added, “The United States is with us.”

Mr Netanyahu’s rivals are not so sure. For months they harangued the prime minister for damaging ties with America. “Netanyahu doesn’t know the new America…He made a series of severe mistakes that led to a historic decline in the relationship,” harrumphed Yair Lapid, the leader of the opposition, earlier this year.

The immediate concern, voiced both inside and outside the Israeli government, is that America will withdraw its support for the war in Gaza and oppose future Israeli military forays in the region, such as further strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities (something Israel’s spies think may be necessary). As it is, Mr Netanyahu has irritated the Trump administration with his attacks on Syria, despite America’s friendly stance towards the new regime there, and by the bombing raid he ordered on Hamas officials in Qatar, an American ally. Mr Netanyahu was dismayed to see Mr Trump rush to placate the Qatari leadership after Israel’s strike. “Trump is more transactional than Biden, who was instinctively pro-Israel,” says an Israeli diplomat. “He could listen to his friends in the Arab world, like the Qataris, who are urging him to take a tougher position. Especially if the war in Gaza continues.”

There are also longer-term worries about the future of America’s military support. Before Barack Obama left office in 2016 he signed a ten-year, $38bn aid package, mainly to subsidise Israeli purchases of American arms, which runs out in 2028. Discussions about a new package would normally already have begun. Although Israel is completely reliant on America for advanced fighter jets for its air force, in particular, some Israeli officials believe it would be better not to request more such aid, but instead to propose a “technology partnership” with America. “Trump is the kind of president who insists on seeing what America gets out of a deal,” cautions an Israeli official. “It might be more sensible to present the next aid deal differently.”

A sense is also growing that, whoever is in the White House and whatever Israel’s military campaigns, relations with America may not be so close in future. A senior official predicts, “Joe Biden [Mr Trump’s predecessor] will have been the last Zionist president.” The next Democrat to occupy the White House, he reasons, will have to make concessions to the younger generation in the party, who have become much more hostile to Israel as the war in Gaza has dragged on.

Yet America’s help would be hard to replace. Military aid may be the least troubling element. Israel had budgeted to spend over $23bn dollars on defence the year the war in Gaza began, including $3.8bn in grants from America. American aid, in other words, although important, is only a small share of military spending. Israel’s GDP, of roughly $540bn last year, is big enough to sustain higher outlays on defence. (Regardless of who paid, Israel would still want to buy advanced weapons such as fighter jets from America to keep all its gear operating together smoothly.)

Other forms of assistance have no ready substitutes. America gives Israel access to its intelligence and surveillance networks. It operates a massive radar station in Israel’s Negev Desert which provides early warning of incoming missiles from Iran. Over the past two years America has repeatedly deterred Israel’s enemies and bolstered its defences by deploying carrier groups, missile-defence batteries and fighter squadrons to the region. Attempting to replicate such capabilities would be ruinously expensive for a country as small as Israel.

America has also refrained from selling its most sophisticated weapons, such as its F-35 stealth fighters, to any other countries in the Middle East. It has used its veto power at the UN Security Council to block resolutions on Israel around 50 times. Such boons are hard to quantify, but the value of being seen as a close ally of America, with all the diplomatic, military and financial heft that entails, is doubtless immense. “The strategic alliance with America is the cornerstone to Israel’s national security” is a catchphrase among Israeli generals, politicians and pundits.

Israel’s friendship with America did not really blossom until the late 1960s. It survived the prior 20 years despite the belligerence of its neighbours, and could doubtless cope again if the two fell out. But few Israelis want to contemplate the costs, privations and dangers that would entail. ■