Takaichi Sanae’s path to power in Japan grows more complex

THE MARRIAGE was an unlikely one. Komeito, a pacifist party backed by a big Buddhist organisation, and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the dominant conservative force in post-war Japan, had been open adversaries before forming a coalition in 1999. To some, it looked like little more than an electoral marriage of convenience. Yet they stayed together—until October 10th, when Komeito told the LDP it had finally had enough.

The divorce had many causes and will have far-reaching consequences. The trigger was the election on October 4th of Takaichi Sanae (pictured), a hardline conservative, as the LDP’s new leader. Following Komeito’s exit, her road to becoming prime minister has grown more complicated. A pathway has opened up for an opposition coalition to unseat the LDP for only the third time in its 70-year history.

Komeito was founded in 1964 to represent Soka Gakkai, a lay Buddhist movement with millions of members. The party positioned itself as standing for pacifism, social welfare and clean government. Over time Komeito shifted from the far left to the centre, becoming a small but consequential force in the Diet—helping in 1993, for instance, to unseat the LDP for the first time ever. Later, as a new electoral arithmetic took hold, the former foes decided there was more to gain by joining forces. In their coalition, Komeito checked some of the LDP’s more hawkish impulses. It has also been a key backchannel to China.

Komeito’s relationship with the LDP had become strained in recent years. With the LDP mired in fundraising scandals, Komeito’s core supporters, the 8m households that belong to Soka Gakkai, grew frustrated. The group’s longtime spiritual leader, Ikeda Daisaku, who favoured the coalition, died in 2023. Komeito’s showings at the ballot box deteriorated: in upper-house elections this year, it won just 9% of the vote, down from 13% in 2019.

During her first days as party leader, Ms Takaichi, a former drummer in a heavy-metal band, chose to butt heads rather than build bridges. Behind Komeito’s back, she began courting Tamaki Yuichiro, the head of the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), a rising opposition force. She filled her LDP leadership team with party elders on bad terms with Komeito.

Even when Komeito demanded substantial reforms to campaign finance, Ms Takaichi elevated a lawmaker who had been at the heart of fund-raising scandals. Komeito also recoils at her revisionist views on wartime history. Saito Tetsuo, Komeito’s leader, opted for rupture.

For the LDP, the implications are stark. In the Diet’s lower house, which selects the prime minister, the LDP has 196 of the 465 seats (Komeito would have added an additional 24). The three largest opposition parties—the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) and the DPP—control 148, 35 and 27 seats respectively, enough to band together to outvote the LDP. The three have never co-operated before, but Noda Yoshihiko, the leader of the centre-left CDP, calls it “a once-in-a-decade chance for a change of government.” He has signalled a willingness to back Mr Tamaki as prime minister.

Yet forming a coalition will require bridging vast policy differences between the three parties and would result in an unstable minority government. A meeting between their parties’ leaders on October 15th ended without agreement. The LDP is a more natural partner for centre-right Ishin; a meeting between Ms Takaichi and Ishin’s leaders the same day seemed to go more smoothly. The Diet could vote on a new prime minister on October 21st.

Without Komeito, the LDP’s centre of gravity will shift rightward. That may mean faster movement on security-policy reforms, which Komeito has often opposed, but also slower progress on improving social policy. The electoral map will also change. The LDP and Komeito co-ordinated to support each other’s candidates, but may now compete. Their break-up makes Japan’s messy politics even messier. ■