India and Pakistan could come to blows over Kashmir

THE ALPINE meadows and pine forests of Pahalgam have long been a lure for visitors to the Indian region of Jammu & Kashmir. They called it “mini-Switzerland” and came in greater numbers lately as India’s government hailed a downturn in militant violence in the region. Yet on April 22nd at least 26 people were killed and 17 injured after gunmen opened fire on tourists in Pahalgam. It was the deadliest attack since 2019 in the Muslim-majority region, which is claimed in full but ruled in part by both India and Pakistan. It was also the bloodiest strike on tourists since an insurgency started there 36 years ago.

A group calling itself the Resistance Front claimed responsibility on social media, citing an influx of 85,000 settlers. Pakistan’s government denied involvement. But Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri alleged cross-border involvement from Pakistan. He said India was immediately suspending a six-decade-old river-sharing treaty and closing the two countries’ only land border crossing. He also said India had given Pakistan’s defence attachés a week to leave India and was withdrawing its own defence staff from Pakistan. Pakistanis in India on a visa exemption scheme had 48 hours to leave, he added.

Former Indian military and intelligence officials meanwhile accused Pakistan’s armed forces of masterminding the assault and called for a strong and swift response. Twelve days after the 2019 attack, which killed 40 Indian policemen, India carried out an air strike on Pakistan. Pakistan’s air force struck back the next day. As Indian jets responded, one crashed in Pakistani territory, although the pilot survived and returned to India.

The recent attack coincided with a visit to India by America’s vice-president, J.D. Vance. It threatens to trigger another military confrontation between India and Pakistan. Both have nuclear weapons and have fought two wars, plus a more limited conflict, over Kashmir since their independence in 1947. Mr Vance offered his condolences. President Donald Trump said America “stands strong with India against terrorism”. Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, cut short a visit to Saudi Arabia and vowed to bring the perpetrators to justice. Indian media said the dead were all men, mostly Hindu, and included an Indian navy officer and an intelligence official (both off-duty) plus a Nepalese national.

The attack is a blow to the Indian government’s claims to have stabilised Kashmir. Tens of thousands of people have been killed there since the anti-India insurgency began in 1989. But in recent years militant violence appeared to have subsided. India’s government credited that to its decision to revoke Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status in 2019, splitting what had been an Indian state into two federally administered territories: Jammu & Kashmir, and Ladakh. That allowed tens of thousands of outsiders to get jobs and buy land in the region. Tourist numbers increased. But it also led to a deterioration of ties with Pakistan. In a speech this month Pakistan’s army chief, General Asim Munir, described Kashmir as “our jugular vein”.

Former Indian security officials suggested that the perpetrators aimed to draw international attention to Kashmir by planning the attack to coincide with Mr Vance’s visit to India and Mr Modi’s to Saudi Arabia. They also suggested that the assault was designed to undermine Kashmir’s tourist industry, as it came just a few weeks before a big Hindu pilgrimage. The last deadly incident in the region was in June 2024, when nine people died after a militant attack caused a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims to plunge into a gorge. India’s government then launched a major operation to find the perpetrators and pledged to strengthen security. India’s response this time is already firmer. But there may well be more to come. ■