After years of despair, Haiti has a sliver of hope

Haiti is gripped by a nervous countdown. The country is approaching the end of a botched political-transition process. What was supposed to put Haiti on a path back to security after a coalition of gangs seized control of Port-au-Prince, the capital, in 2024, has plunged it further into lawlessness. As The Economist went to press, it was unclear who would run Haiti after February 7th, when the transitional arrangement ends.

The nine-member Presidential Transition Council that has officially been running Haiti over this period was supposed to steer the country to new elections to replace President Jovenel Moïse, who was assassinated in his bedroom in 2021. Instead, the council has bickered over which of them should take over. Some of its members have been accused of extorting bribes. Meanwhile thousands of Haitians have been killed as gangs kidnapped, raped and pillaged almost at will. More than 1.4m people have been displaced. Levels of hunger are about as high as those in civil-war-torn Sudan.

At a time when Donald Trump is attacking the United Nations on many fronts, it is unusual to see his administration working closely with it in Haiti. Together they are aggressively targeting the gangs, while also trying to convince Haiti’s fractious politicians to put aside personal ambition. “We’re about a very basic thing,” says a senior American official. “Security and stability.”

The United States wants the current prime minister, Alix Didier Fils-Aimé, to stay on after February 7th. He was appointed by the council, but is under pressure from some of its members to leave. Four council members are already under American sanctions for trying to push Mr Fils-Aimé out. They are accused of having “enabled” Haitian gangs “to destabilise the country”. On February 3rd the destroyer USS Stockdale and several Coast Guard cutters arrived in Port-au-Prince bay, perhaps to warn the council to stay in line. In a statement, the American embassy in Haiti said the presence of the warships “reflects the United States’ unwavering commitment to Haiti’s security, stability and brighter future”.

Nonetheless, three members of the council proposed themselves as joint presidents on February 3rd, in defiance of the outsiders. Mr Fils-Aimé’s reliance on foreign powers and his ties to wealthy elites in Haiti’s private sector make him vulnerable to nationalist accusations of carrying water for the “blan”, the word Haitians use to describe foreigners. The defecting council members purport to represent those more nationalist factions.

While politicians squabble, living conditions grow more dire by the month. The capital’s airport has been closed to commercial flights from the United States for more than a year. The city’s main public hospital is also shut. Some 1,600 schools were closed due to violence last year; 1.5m children lack access to education. In 2025 more than 8,100 people were murdered, 20% more than were killed in 2024, according to UN reports. Armed violence has killed some 16,000 Haitians since 2022. Almost half of Haiti’s 12m inhabitants need food support. On January 28th the French charity Médecins Sans Frontières said it was “alarmed and outraged” by the soaring number of rapes. Admissions to its sexual-violence clinic have tripled since 2021 to more than 250 a month.

But the situation on the ground may be shifting. In September the UN authorised a new Gang Suppression Force (GSF) to replace the ineffective international police force led by Kenya. Promoted by the United States, the larger, 5,500-strong GSF is designed to have a more offensive, military mission, with better equipment and resources, including drones and air support. The first reinforcements, mainly from Chad and Sri Lanka, are expected in April.

Meanwhile the gangs have been put on the defensive for the first time. That is partly due to the work of a new security task-force made up of Haitian police, the GSF and a team of about 120 foreign military contractors working with Vectus Global, an American firm hired by the Haitian government. The task-force has launched surprise attacks against the gangs at night. “The gangs have never had to deal with that before,” says the American official. “There have been a number of very effective punches right into the teeth. The trick is, can you sustain it?”

Much of the answer depends on the Haitian National Police (PNH). It has begun a recruitment drive, aiming to bring on 4,000 officers this year. That would be a serious boost to its depleted total of just 13,500, which is well below international norms for a country with some 12m people. The police claim that a new offensive begun in January has pushed back the gangs in some areas, reopening some roads and allowing displaced people to return home. Drones are being used as weapons. Drone strikes targeting gangsters killed 973 people between March and December. Of these 39 were innocent residents, including 16 children, says the UN.

“The current offensive represents one of the most sustained security efforts undertaken by the PNH in recent years,” Halo Solutions, another American security firm in Haiti, said in a report published on January 21st. The people will welcome any progress, but must hope their politicians make similar efforts. ■