Ukraine struggles to cope with America’s destructive peace plans

DONALD TRUMP’S bids to make peace in Ukraine tend to follow a pattern. First comes a Kremlin-friendly opener from Washington. Ukraine and its allies then scramble to soften the plan. A compromise proposal is reached, which Russia rejects, adding impossible conditions. Then comes renewed pressure on Ukraine. The latest round is not too different, but the sides have hardened their positions and raised the stakes.

On December 8th Volodymyr Zelensky pushed back against Mr Trump’s latest proposal, rejecting its demand that Ukraine cede territory to Russia without credible security guarantees. Ukraine and America had different visions of peace, he said. Mr Trump soon responded: Ukraine was losing the war and its president had usurped power by avoiding an election. That evening an exasperated Mr Zelensky told press he was ready for an election “in the next 60 to 90 days”, if America and Europe could guarantee its safety.

Mr Zelensky’s gesture was probably more rhetorical than realistic. Ukrainians have little appetite for elections in wartime, and pulling one off would be logistically challenging. But his words betrayed mounting angst and an impulse to show movement. Reports that Mr Trump is pushing to impose a deal by Christmas are exaggerated, but Kyiv is under pressure. A European diplomat described the latest demands as a “classic Trump psyop”. American officials have fed European counterparts secret proposals for sweeping business deals with Russia, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal—financed, in part, with billions in frozen Russian assets that Europe wants to use to keep Ukraine’s government solvent.

The Americans continue to act as though accepting Russia’s demand to hand over territory it has failed to occupy will bring peace. Yet all the evidence suggests Vladimir Putin sees it as a means to achieve Ukraine’s political subjugation. Even as the Americans pressed Kyiv to accept concessions, Mr Putin told Indian journalists he would “liberate Donbas and Novorossiya...by military or other means”. The territory the Russian Empire once termed Novorossiya stretches past Odessa into Moldova.

The problems stem in part from multiple negotiation tracks. Last spring Ukrainian, Russian and American intelligence officers worked on a secret outline for a peace deal. But that effort was superseded by an erratic negotiation driven by Steve Witkoff, Mr Trump’s special envoy. The plan he co-authored with Kirill Dmitriev, a Kremlin envoy, and which led to the document currently under negotiation, initially surfaced the day after Mr Trump had privately approved a push by Senator Lindsey Graham for new sanctions on Russia. That suggests Russia was using the negotiations as an effort to torpedo sanctions. “It’s an influence operation masquerading as a peace plan,” says an American official.

The latest manoeuvres by Mr Trump would be curious if they were not so familiar. On December 7th he declared his plan had full Russian agreement, and that Mr Zelensky had not even read it. The record shows otherwise. Days earlier Yuri Ushakov, a Kremlin adviser, said Mr Putin had “a critical, even negative, attitude” towards the plan. Mr Trump simply decided to blame the weaker party.

Ukraine is in a tough spot. European allies may finally be moving to use the frozen Russian assets, but long-term economic prospects are grim. The military picture is starker. Russia has not achieved a major breakthrough in years, but a bloody surge is accelerating. Pokrovsk, a city that withstood Russian attack for 16 months, is slipping out of control. Ukraine has reinforced a defensive line on the city’s northern edge. But one senior commander, speaking anonymously, says this came at the cost of other fronts. He points to a dire situation in Siversk, an outpost shielding Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, two important cities. “If Siversk falls,” he says, “the evacuation roads open up. Then there will be panic.”

President Zelensky’s problems do not end there. On November 28th an anti-corruption investigation forced the departure of Andriy Yermak, head of the presidential office. Twelve days on Mr Zelensky had yet to appoint a successor. Three figures are under consideration: Mykhailo Fedorov, the reform-minded deputy prime minister; General Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s intelligence chief; and Sergiy Kyslytsya, the deputy foreign minister. On December 9th Mr Zelensky even floated abolishing the presidential office altogether. Insiders say he may move towards a government led by security officials. In that scenario the popular spy chief would be the likely choice. A Ukrainian diplomat welcomed the prospect. “The Europeans will not help us if we refuse to help ourselves,” he said.■