Newborn parties are scrambling Japanese politics

Politics in Japan has long resembled a straight thoroughfare. Most traffic moved with the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP); the disaffected flowed to the ideological left. But the political map increasingly looks more like the famous multidirectional Shibuya crossing in central Tokyo, with newer outfits zooming off in wildly different directions. Of the ten main parties competing in lower-house elections on February 8th only three existed before 2012 (a fourth is a recent merger of two longer-standing parties).

The Shibuya crossing is itself a good place to see the shifting traffic. Within the span of a single day last week, the leaders of three noteworthy upstarts—the hard-right Do It Yourself Party (Sanseito), the populist Democratic Party for the People (DPP), and the techno-optimist Team Future (Mirai)—held rallies there, straining to be heard over the weekend din. Rabble-rousers from Reiwa Shinsengumi, a new far-left outfit, gathered nearby. The upstarts play up their novelty, reflecting a growing demand for change.

The newborns also share angst about Japan’s shrinking, ageing population. Yet they offer starkly different plans for the future. Tamaki Yuichiro of the DPP speaks of transforming an “anxious generation into a hopeful generation”, with the help of big tax cuts. To hear Anno Takahiro of Mirai tell it, robots will save Japan: he urges faster adoption of AI, robotics and self-driving vehicles to overcome labour shortages. Kamiya Sohei of Sanseito, by contrast, rails against migrants and hails Tokugawa Ieyasu, a shogun who united Japan in the early 17th century and started a 260-year era characterised by relative peace and strict isolationism.

Such parties remain small: the biggest is the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), with 34 seats in the 465-member lower chamber. Yet they have been able to wield disproportionate influence, thanks in part to their adept use of social media. Ishin has become the LDP’s new coalition partner. The DPP has negotiated with the ruling coalition to push through a pet tax policy. Sanseito has thrust immigration to the centre of debate. To claim success in the election, the upstarts need not take power—just maintain their forward motion. ■