Britain’s police reforms are a step in the right direction

Homicides in England and Wales have dropped to their lowest level in more than 50 years. Rates of burglary, violent crime and vehicle theft have fallen dramatically from their peak in the 1990s. Yet almost 90% of Brits see crime as a “big problem” facing the country. Since 2020 the proportion of those expressing “no confidence” in the police has almost doubled.

Why this seeming contradiction? One reason is that Britain’s police barely solve any crimes. In 2015 the share of offences resulting in a charge or summons was 13.4%. Last year it was 7.6%. Add to this a collapse in community policing (a majority of Brits say that they never see officers on foot patrol in their area) and a rise in high-volume, high-visibility crimes like shoplifting and phone-snatching, and the result is a widening divide between how safe people are and how safe they feel.

The home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, hopes to bridge this gap. Last month she published a white paper outlining the biggest police reforms in almost two centuries. Two changes stand out. One is the creation of a nationwide police force, the National Police Service (NPS). It will set practices, standardise IT systems and centralise procurement. It will also assume responsibility for serious and organised crime, including terrorism. Second, Ms Mahmood wants to merge the patchwork of 43 independent local forces into larger, regional ones. An independent review, due to report in the summer, will determine how many (maybe around 13).

Centralising functions such as IT and procurement under what is being dubbed a “British FBI” is long overdue. An NPS should also help with clearance rates. Police solve less crime today because crime has become harder to solve. It is more organised, more technical and increasingly fails to respect geographical boundaries. Expertise is also unevenly distributed. Victims of rape in the West Midlands are about half as likely to see their attacker charged as those in London. An NPS could start to level these regional inequalities—as it did when Scotland moved from eight forces to one in 2013.

Where Ms Mahmood’s reforms will struggle is in tackling local policing. She has promised to put 13,000 extra bobbies on the beat. Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and Scotland have all consolidated their police forces over the past 20 years. A degradation of local policing tends to follow, as officers are drawn into more specialist roles and forces cover wider areas. Local resistance scuppered similar changes proposed in 2005.

Nor are Ms Mahmood’s reforms likely to make much of a dent in the crimes she promises to solve—chief among them anti-social behaviour, shoplifting and violence against women and girls (VAWG). These are more than a police problem. Shoplifting is dominated by repeat offenders, who often turn to theft to fund an addiction. Prolific thieves often go free because of ineffective sentencing guidelines, a courts backlog and an overcrowded prison system. Similar issues surround anti-social behaviour, often associated with mental illness, and VAWG. That the police alone can solve these issues is, says Ben Bradford of University College London, “a fallacy”.

Britain’s police structure is in desperate need of reform. Ms Mahmood’s plans are a step in the right direction. But it remains unclear how they will be paid for. And history gives reason for scepticism. The National Crime Agency, combating organised crime, was also dubbed the “British FBI” when it was created in 2013. As was the Serious Organised Crime Agency (established in 2006), and the National Criminal Intelligence Service before that. None of them was particularly successful. ■